View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- 12-23-12, 09:07 AM #1401
- 12-23-12, 09:55 AM #1402
RIM is very much past moving the delivery date. The January 30th launch date was picked for strategic reasons, not because they "should be done" by then. There's been enough activity and leaks to show that the hardware and OS have been pretty much finalized, even if they're still working on the tweaks, which they will continue on past launch date anyhow. Going off the cliff will be harmful, but not as much to RIM, it's a Canadian company and while not immune to the effects of the American economy, it's in a lot better position than if it were American company.
While I agree that at this stage there is definite risk, and the stock is bound to be volatile for quite a while, with risk comes reward. If you buy the company now and RIM succeeds, your original investment will realize huge gains, if RIM were to fail though, your risk is not so huge because right now the company is trading near it's valuation so the stock value doesn't really have much more to fall.
This is of course my opinion and take it as you will.
- 12-23-12, 10:14 AM #1403
Not sure I agree that the date is strategic - it is the best guess earliest ANNOUNCEMENT date. No one really knows about availability. And (well documented) they missed back to school and the holiday season, which is not a great strategy.
Right now the date doesn't matter. They have to deliver. And if it ships with bugs, it will be a death-knell.
- 12-23-12, 10:57 AM #1404
It's actually an awesome strategy. There's a lot of noise right now, they're launching during a relatively quiet period. All eyes will be on RIM. It's the earliest date after the holiday madness has subsided but not too late that the hardware they're launching with will be still competitive.
- 12-23-12, 11:13 AM #1405
All depends on when the devices will become available and not announced.
Announce too early and the buzz (and credibility) are gone. Announce too late and you lose the momentum. There isn't that much noise. Just among the loyalists.
We will see what happens on 30 January.
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-23-12, 12:29 PM #1410
- 288 Posts
- CrackBerry Genius
12-23-12, 01:23 PM #1411
- 2,381 Posts
Thought I would show you graphically what is happening with RIM's stock these days so that you can make better decisions.
I realize that Thursday night and Friday were two days of excitement and fear for many. It doesn't appear to be anything more than a normal trading event in any case. As you can see by the chart, we broke out from a base and challenged the 200 day moving average, later the 50-dma caught up with the 200-dma and produced a very bullish Golden Cross. The stock rallied hard from there and on Thursday night, it simply arrived at the top of the channel at $ 15.38/shr and produced a major "Sell Signal". The stock then sold off as do corrections, it was fast and painful but it is necessary to get the stock back into a "Buy" mode again. Now we are simply back to the breakout point at the 50-dma and have huge support at the 200-dma too.
So what now? I see the stock completing its test of support tomorrow morning which is at the 50-dma and the 200-dma, it will be swift and you have to get your orders in and catch the trade. There is big support around the $ 10.50/shr area so the stock doesn't have much time to make a bottom here. Will it get to test the dma's?? Not likely, unless there is a major general market decline here. Most traders will wrap up their trading early and the pressure will come off the stock and it will hold the uptrend line at $ 10.50/shr and above. So place your orders in at $ 10.55/shr and fill those orders for Christmas, as the good news is that this is the last sell-off prior to the BB 10 launch and the stock will now be safe to rally to $ 18.00/shr by the end of next month. The only thing that slows this down is if the general market tanks on our stupid US government. BUY RIM, you will be glad you did in a couple of days as it should trade above $ 12.50/shr very quickly and move up from there!
- CrackBerry Genius
12-23-12, 02:24 PM #1413
- 2,381 Posts
Good luck and don't prevent me from getting my stock in the morning! HA!
- 12-23-12, 04:41 PM #1421
After all, I collect old computers too like Sinclair computers and older Macintosh computers, but I don't invest significantly in them. So, were I wealthy, I'd probably purchase a few shares of RIMM, just to say I owned some.
But, I'm not wealthy, so I won't.
- 12-24-12, 02:36 AM #1422
RIM is a risky play. No one is arguing that. Risk equals reward. Ask anyone wealthy about the risks they took to get where they are and I'm sure they won't have a story that has anything to do with sitting on the sidelines because the risk is too great.
- 12-24-12, 05:29 AM #1423
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-24-12, 08:28 AM #1424
- 381 Posts
Your assumption that "risk = reward" is faulty. It is common in the financial world for the risk premium to be out-of-line with potential returns. For example (and this is not the only one), prices easily get out of whack for a short period when unsophisticated investors (retail) overwhelm sophisticated investors (institutional) because of emotional attachment to stocks. So far, no one here has made any compelling statements that explain why RIM stock should be worth something other than what it is currently without qualifying their assumptions with emotional sentiment. So let me do that...
RIM has the same basic options as other companies: success, failure, breakup / takeover. No stock is priced exactly where it should be if people otherwise could divine its future. And so, the current price is probably not where it should be (QED), but I don't know if it is too high or too low. And the problem is that there are only a handful of people in this world who truly have a strong understanding of a company's future.
Imagine a situation where you knew everything Thorsten knows as well as what analysts may know and that you know whether large institutional investors plan on gaming the stock for their own purposes. Now imagine how anyone on the planet can know all that. If you agree with me that it is unlikely that others know as much as that, then no one can perform the risk-reward calculation properly. The statement "risk = rewards" cannot be true. Wikipedia agrees with me: Efficient-market_hypothesis
The trick for most speculative investors is somehow to know when to get in and get out. To me, I say that is strictly a matter of artistic prowess and is not something that is easily transferable. I don't have this ability, nor do most people. And unless you are in frequent contact with such a person, it is difficult to follow his/her advice. I liken it to unrestrained mountain climbing. Some people should never try it.
Last edited by bk1022; 12-24-12 at 09:14 AM.
- 12-24-12, 09:02 AM #1425
It is all a guess when it comes to RIMM. Too many factors with risk for my tastes and going "off the cliff" is what I am hoping for as any deal that Obama would accept would be bad for us in the end. Sequestration was never meant to really happen, but it looks like the only way we can get some control over the government's spending.
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