View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- CrackBerry Abuser
12-21-12, 04:27 PM #1376
- 381 Posts
- CrackBerry Addict
12-21-12, 07:36 PM #1378
- 800 Posts
After the earnings report came out media panicked at the better than expected results and searched for anything and everything they could to try and beat down the share price. Analysts are sheep and once one goober mentioned the service fee thing all the other ones jumped on it and the snowball effect started. It takes some real balls to "downgrade" a stock once it has already gone down 20 percent in a day /sarcasm. This service fee thing is not a revelation. It's been talked about since March of this year as per this article:
DailyTech - Report: RIM to Slash BlackBerry Service Fees After Second Gov. Agency Leaves
- 12-21-12, 08:18 PM #1379
Good point. Blame the media.
The media doesn't buy and sell stocks. Individual investors (immaterial) and institutional investors (important) do.
The market reacted because Carpino didn't give an answer. He said "Asked how service fees paid by consumers and businesses will change with the coming BlackBerry 10 platform, RIM Vice President Paul Carpino essentially said it’s unclear. “We just aren’t providing the detail on it at this time. ... You’ll have to wait,” he added.
The markets hate uncertainty. 149 million shares traded hands. That's a lot of downward momentum. No matter whether you buy 50-100 shares on Monday.
And in the long run it won't matter if RIM delivers BB 10 (and BES) and the customer (individual and corporate) want to buy them.
- CrackBerry Addict
12-21-12, 08:27 PM #1380
- 800 Posts
Right from the video:
"We’re seeing that. Again, when your company’s in a survival mode it’s really important to defeat Research in Motion. You get the Pisanis of the world and the people talking about it as if there’s something wrong with RIMM. Then you would call the Journal and you get the bozo reporter on Research in Motion, and you would feed that Palm’s got a killer it’s gonna give away.
These are all the things you must do on a day like today. And if you’re not doing it, maybe you shouldn’t be in the game."
- 12-21-12, 11:09 PM #1383
So, I checked NASDAQ page for RIMM.
Trading volume was 149 M shares (approx)
And Short interest was 113 M shares (approx)
So, to me, it seems that
1. Price went down because people didn't like something that they heard in earning report .
2. And then this downwards slope was further boosted as people tried to cut their losses (creating a long squeeze)
Now, if we still have 113 M shares currently short, I think it's only a matter of time before shorts start buying back to cover their short positions.
So, market should correct itself in next week or so.
Agree? If you disagree, what did I miss?
- CrackBerry Addict
12-21-12, 11:27 PM #1384
- 859 Posts
I think there's still enough negative momentum that the stock will drop some more before bouncing. Shorts will not start covering unless they see that the stock has dropped to its lowest. Today's plunge was a combination of a lot of things. People taking profits, people protecting their gains, additional short interest and of course the simple fact that the stock has rallied way too fast (As I have noted several times I might add) and was due for a correction. With only a few trading days before year end people are finalizing their position. I think you'll see a lot of sentiment reversal come early January.
Also it's worth nothing that the stock went from Overbought to Oversold so a upward correction is inevitable. If you're still looking for an entry to go long, the bottom is still to be determined.
When you deal with large quantities and your goal is not instant speculation, you stay away from volatility.
Recent news and (forced ?) gloomy interpretation of the "missing revenues" topic has exactly done that. I believe we had a range from 14.2 to 10.8 abt. 30% volatility in 2 days, that's a rollercoaster.
Unpredictable is a word many will consider as a synonym of "stay away".
Now, is that media feeling due to solicitation or simply miss-reading of the announcements ? I have no founded fact to tell. In fact I believe it's both; the "negative buzz" situation is here though.
- CrackBerry Addict
12-22-12, 12:22 PM #1391
- 578 Posts
Bernstein Research sees $20 in 3-4 months:
--In the thicket of negative sell-side reports on Research in Motion‘s (RIMM) today, following its fiscal Q3 report last night, at least one analyst thought today’s sell-off was an over-reaction.
RIM shares today traded down $3.21, or 22.7%, to close at $10.91, reversing gains last night, as comments from management on the post-report conference call suggested some portion of the company’s secure messaging network service could be essentially given away for free in return for getting uptake with BlackBerry units being sold starting in January.
Bernstein Research‘s Pierre Ferragu, who has a Market Perform rating on RIM stock, thinks a bit too much is being made of the change in the services model:
We see the stock reaction as unjustified and a good opportunity to invest the short term rally we recommend. We believe the situation for Blackberry on that perspective is very clear. It is understood that the migration to Blackberry 10 will create some pressure on Service revenues, most likely for some consumer segments. On that basis we see two potential scenarios: Either Blackberry 10 is a slow launch, driving limited upside. In that case, older contracts will continue to form the vast majority of RIM’s user base. RIM will continue to benefit from the service revenue cushion [...] In that scenario, RIM’s business model is much more resilient than the stock and consensus expectations imply. Or Blackberry 10 is a success, and in that case, there is a risk that service revenues come under some pressure, as maybe the new pricing structure creates some downside. But let’s face it. If Blackberry 10 is a success, the stock isn’t going to trade where it is today but probably at a multiple of it! A structural decline of Service revenues in the mix cannot be considered a downside risk on the recent stock price in such a scenario.
As for the January 30th debut of the BB10 software, the new face of BlackBerry, “Contrary to our initial forecast, we believe the launch of Blackberry 10 is ramping up positively,” he writes. “We have seen good anecdotal evidence that carriers have adopted a positive attitude about it.”
Ferragu thinks RIM shares can get to $20 over “the next 3 to 4 months, as a short-term trade.” He thinks that further out than that, investors must be careful because with only 50 million to 60 million consumer users, RIM has only a small pool of potential upgrade customers. He also argues that within its base of perhaps 30 million corporate users, “we see more and more evidence of a market share losses in corporate, with a negative trend both on the number of users and replacement cycles.”--
RIMM: Sell-Off Unwarranted, Says Bernstein, Sees Upside to $20 - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-22-12, 03:51 PM #1393
- 131 Posts
It's simple - the big boys and hedgies are short big time and have to find a way to buy alot of stock cheap. They wisper to their Nasdaq buddies that RIMM should be removed from the Nasdaq 100 (basket of the top 100 non-financial stocks). Alot of funds and ETFs can only hold a stock if it in this group of 100, so they have to sell. So they sell RIMM stock out of their clients accounts, buy it their own accounts to cover their shorts. Then when RIM goes to $20, they say "Sorry we had to sell at $11, we were forced to". They get rich - we get poor. Same old BS. The only exchange that I can see daily short trading on is Boston and they were covering big on Friday. Anyone know where to see daily NASDAQ shorting activity???
- 12-23-12, 01:04 AM #1394
You are not taking into consideration that with the Fed going off the cliff...BYOD is becoming the rule in the Government...NO LONGER is there unlimited funds to setup entire departments in brand new BB10s...RIM may find future sales to the FED much more difficult...
- 12-23-12, 01:13 AM #1395
Technically, RIM could make heavy money just supporting BYOD users this way. BES CAL's are a nice source of revenue and would cater to more than double RIMs current client base.
- 12-23-12, 06:09 AM #1397
It means if you are smart, do not buy right now. Going off the cliff will not be near as harmful for RIM than if they have a problem. RIM is not past moving a delivery date of BB10. This would be "death". For RIM to not have this ready for the Holiday season, tells me they are pushing way to hard.
I also fear there be a problem. A brand new OS with brand new hardware would be a huge challenge for ANY company, much less RIM.
Just saying might be best to stay liquid. There is a great chance to make money here, but the risks are huge and should be understood.
- 12-23-12, 09:04 AM #1400
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