View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1100. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    692 62.91%
  • No

    408 37.09%
  1. morlock_man's Avatar
    Damn. Beat me to 1000.

    i just think the launch will go far beyond what they've currently demo'd.

    They've demonstrated the OS and the SDKs for BB10. They've also flashed the hardware around. What hasn't been really demo'd is the software they've been developing on their own using cascades.

    They bought jaycut, but how much have you heard about the jaycut app for BB10?

    They're still playing their cards close to their chest. Everything up until now has been just a peek of what the platform is capable of doing.

    IMHO.
    Superfly_FR and MrBurns2U like this.
    11-27-12 09:51 PM
  2. Knightcrawler's Avatar
    McMaster University Engineering Canada
    wow, small world 0.o
    11-27-12 11:26 PM
  3. Caymancroc's Avatar
    http://classic.cnbc.com/id/49985854/1

    Cramer says it is overvalued. For all you stock newbies this means it is likely a buy. The time to get scared is when Cramer says to buy it. That will likely be near the top.
    11-28-12 04:46 AM
  4. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Market went back today to try fill the gap left from Friday to Monday's launch, it didn't completely. Not unusual, as I said before nature abhors a vacuum, especially in technical analysis so it was likely this gap would be closed in the same way the downside one was recently.

    Going to be interesting tomorrow, you really wouldn't want to see the market go much lower than here 10.35 fills the gap and you would like to see that hold, if it didn't you might see some continued profit taking from short term traders. This move brought the RSI back in line which is another thing I was hoping to see for the bull side of the argument, gave a little respite for some of the technical guys looking for another place to buy.

    Just my humble opinion looking at the chart. See what I know :-)
    I agree. See my post above before yesterdays action. It was predictable but the pullback was a little stronger than I would have liked to see and on very large volume meaning there was a lot of people selling (and buying of course). If it gets driven below 10 today and I had a profit, I would sell at least half. I'd worry the rally could be over and then you need to really hope BB10 is a huge success. I am still not convinced it is anything more than a momentum play for many who bought in last month, but for those who bought, I hope it is much more than that.
    randall2580 likes this.
    11-28-12 07:39 AM
  5. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Totally agree about Cramer. But on the other hand, my father in law was talking about buying RIMM over Thanksgiving so that is the ultimate sign that the rally could be over!
    11-28-12 07:40 AM
  6. silversun10's Avatar
    Totally agree about Cramer. But on the other hand, my father in law was talking about buying RIMM over Thanksgiving so that is the ultimate sign that the rally could be over!
    i doubt the rally will end before launch, what we see right now is volatility, wild swings, the rally is still there...
    11-28-12 07:44 AM
  7. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I don't necessarily disagree, but if it gets back down to 8 I'd say it was over for now. Hopefully it doesn't get there. Also we need to agree on a time frame. Its only a rally if you look at the last 3 months, anything longer than that and its a classic (and even small) dead cat bounce from much higher levels. Its all about your investment timeline.
    Knightcrawler likes this.
    11-28-12 08:00 AM
  8. silversun10's Avatar
    I don't necessarily disagree, but if it gets back down to 8 I'd say it was over for now. Hopefully it doesn't get there. Also we need to agree on a time frame. Its only a rally if you look at the last 3 months, anything longer than that and its a classic (and even small) dead cat bounce from much higher levels. Its all about your investment timeline.
    this rally is about the launch and speculation about BB10's success, so there is your time frame, it will at least last till launch when reality hits and we will see again
    11-28-12 08:04 AM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    good start today. I mean, no plunge.
    May be why ? http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...rticle-755685/
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY cafe [was: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png  
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 11-28-12 at 11:15 AM.
    11-28-12 09:48 AM
  10. bungaboy's Avatar
    McMaster University Engineering Canada
    That's like Cornflakes U, isn't it? LoL
    11-28-12 10:14 AM
  11. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    #BAM
    Back over $11 : done.
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY cafe [was: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png  
    11-28-12 11:42 AM
  12. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    11-28-12 03:18 PM
  13. Zarpan's Avatar
    anybody got long calls position on RIMM ? whats ur opinion and reasoning, i'd like to hear as i am considering getting some myself
    I'm holding some out-of-the-money call options for January 2014. It is basically a bet that a successful BB10 launch will result in the stock price going up very substantially by 2014 (the $40/share, $4 EPS scenario laid out by people such as Misek, Papageorgiou, Eric Jackson, etc...).

    Currently you can get around nine Jan 2014 call options with $20 strike price for the same amount as 100 shares. If the price does make it up to $40, then the options would be worth $18k vs $4k if you purchased the shares themselves. Of course, if the stock is $20 or less when the options expire, then you'd be losing your entire investment.

    It's a highly speculative play, so I didn't put too much into it. However, it may be a potential way to approach things if:

    1. You're okay with losing most/all of the money that you spend on the call options.
    2. You think that BB10 has a reasonable chance of success.
    3. You think that success will result in a very large increase in the stock price. If you think that the BB10 launch will result in a $1-$2 EPS in FY14, translating into perhaps a $20 price, then it's probably better to go the stock route.
    4. You think that if BB10 is not successful, then the stock price will take a large hit from current levels.

    Taking a look at some of the scenarios that Peter Misek (as an example) outlined:

    20% chance of $40 in 12 months, 20% chance of $10, 60% chance of $5 (changed from his $0 since I doubt that RIM will be worth $0 in 12 months even if the launch isn't a success) gives us an expected value of $13 vs the current price of $11+.

    With the Jan 2014 call options at a $20 strike price, this would mean that the option would have a 20% chance at being worth $20 and an 80% chance of being worth $0. The expected value here is $4 vs. a current price of around $1.25.

    So I figured that the risk/reward ratio was worth taking a shot at here with a limited amount of investment, although it really is a situation with an extremely high reward but also a very high risk, given that there is a hypothetical 80% chance of being left with nothing.
    Superfly_FR and s0be like this.
    11-28-12 04:42 PM
  14. rcheung135's Avatar
    Likely a pump and dump. Before you guys flame me, if you want to speculate so can I. I'm just on the conservative side.

    As a general rule of thumb, make sure you diversify away the risk and volatility like every knowledgeable portfolio manager should.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    11-28-12 05:49 PM
  15. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Likely a pump and dump. Before you guys flame me, if you want to speculate so can I. I'm just on the conservative side.

    As a general rule of thumb, make sure you diversify away the risk and volatility like every knowledgeable portfolio manager should.
    At least, it's a good point that even newcomers (I) read these kind of message. Please let me translate in my standard language
    : don't get too hot, you could lose your pant.
    11-28-12 06:33 PM
  16. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    [HOT !] Research In Motion upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs !!! - BlackBerry Forums at CrackBerry.com and ... fasten your seat belts, again. Back above $12 ... is that a 48hrs comeback ?
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY cafe [was: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png  
    11-29-12 06:20 AM
  17. s0be's Avatar
    I'm holding some out-of-the-money call options for January 2014. It is basically a bet that a successful BB10 launch will result in the stock price going up very substantially by 2014 (the $40/share, $4 EPS scenario laid out by people such as Misek, Papageorgiou, Eric Jackson, etc...).

    Currently you can get around nine Jan 2014 call options with $20 strike price for the same amount as 100 shares. If the price does make it up to $40, then the options would be worth $18k vs $4k if you purchased the shares themselves. Of course, if the stock is $20 or less when the options expire, then you'd be losing your entire investment.

    It's a highly speculative play, so I didn't put too much into it. However, it may be a potential way to approach things if:

    1. You're okay with losing most/all of the money that you spend on the call options.
    2. You think that BB10 has a reasonable chance of success.
    3. You think that success will result in a very large increase in the stock price. If you think that the BB10 launch will result in a $1-$2 EPS in FY14, translating into perhaps a $20 price, then it's probably better to go the stock route.
    4. You think that if BB10 is not successful, then the stock price will take a large hit from current levels.

    Taking a look at some of the scenarios that Peter Misek (as an example) outlined:

    20% chance of $40 in 12 months, 20% chance of $10, 60% chance of $5 (changed from his $0 since I doubt that RIM will be worth $0 in 12 months even if the launch isn't a success) gives us an expected value of $13 vs the current price of $11+.

    With the Jan 2014 call options at a $20 strike price, this would mean that the option would have a 20% chance at being worth $20 and an 80% chance of being worth $0. The expected value here is $4 vs. a current price of around $1.25.

    So I figured that the risk/reward ratio was worth taking a shot at here with a limited amount of investment, although it really is a situation with an extremely high reward but also a very high risk, given that there is a hypothetical 80% chance of being left with nothing.
    Thanks for ur analysis, its about what i was thinking as well. But to me the 20 strike is too risky, I was looking at selling my shares and getting Jan14 calls with 13 strike price currently @ 2.67 with a $10 strike short position as well with it although i decided to just stick with just the shares i currently own since i never traded options before and I chickened out ..lol
    11-29-12 07:44 AM
  18. BThunderW's Avatar
    Crazy volatility today. GS upgrade shook things up today for sure. In since $7.
    11-29-12 09:30 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Crazy volatility today. GS upgrade shook things up today for sure. In since $7.
    Hey, welcome
    11-29-12 11:52 AM
  20. BThunderW's Avatar
    Anyone on here on StockTwits? The sentiment towards $RIMM is brutal. Lots of Bears and generally people spreading FUD.

    Hey, welcome
    Oh and. Hi
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    11-29-12 02:03 PM
  21. Nindia's Avatar
    Not a bad day today.
    11.54 +0.44 (3.96%)

    I'd like to see it close and open above 12.00 for once though.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    11-29-12 03:04 PM
  22. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Not a bad day today.
    11.54 +0.44 (3.96%)

    I'd like to see it close and open above 12.00 for once though.
    Let this navigate between 11 and 12 for now would be IMHO a good thing. Raptors are noise in the trend. Slow motion is better ... Recovery In Motion ...
    416to604 and bungaboy like this.
    11-29-12 03:09 PM
  23. BThunderW's Avatar
    Not yet, I like nice slow growth rather than a single day rally. Huge jump is almost always followed by a quick sell off and the momentum can take it back further than necessary. Also, lots of resistance at 12 so it will take a while to get through it.

    Not a bad day today.
    11.54 +0.44 (3.96%)

    I'd like to see it close and open above 12.00 for once though.
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    11-29-12 03:10 PM
  24. Nindia's Avatar
    After Hours: 11.57 +0.03 (0.26%)

    Also I want to see a support barrier at $12 so I can sleep easier but for the time being I'll be getting up at market open every day hahaha
    11-29-12 04:15 PM
  25. BThunderW's Avatar
    I'm sitting on some more cash I can toss at RIM so I'm hoping to see 10s again to jump in some more. Though debating leaving the cash till the whole fiscal cliff thing is out of the way as it could get nasty.



    After Hours: 11.57 +0.03 (0.26%)

    Also I want to see a support barrier at $12 so I can sleep easier but for the time being I'll be getting up at market open every day hahaha
    11-29-12 05:10 PM
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