[Corbu]

http://smartstocknews.com/28310-blac...erial-capital/

Imperial Capital Raises Price Target on BlackBerry (BBRY) to $8.50 Following 2Q Report

[Corbu]

https://www.thestar.com/business/201...indonesia.html
BlackBerry still a big hit in Indonesia
An Indonesian wireless company is already hatching plans to introduce its own version of the smartphone.

[cjcampbell]

http://smartstocknews.com/28310-blac...erial-capital/

Imperial Capital Raises Price Target on BlackBerry (BBRY) to $8.50 Following 2Q Report

These reports all kill me. Opining for years to drop the cash killer of handsets, and when they do, and profit is almost guaranteed with high margins, the targets barely budge.

Posted via CB10

[masterful]

These reports all kill me. Opining for years to drop the cash killer of handsets, and when they do, and profit is almost guaranteed with high margins, the targets barely budge.

Posted via CB10

Agreed and let's see what are they going to complain next.

Posted via my BlackBerry PRIV

[bspence87]

The software business is not looking good.

Revenue is stagnant:
Q4 FY16 $ 131
Q1 FY17 $ 142
Q2 FY17 $ 138

Operative income is declining:
Q1 FY17 $37
Q2 FY17 $29

Let's not take things out of context. Q2 has always been their low quarter.

Why don't you spread that out over six quarters and re-analyze.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[BanffMoose]

These reports all kill me. Opining for years to drop the cash killer of handsets, and when they do, and profit is almost guaranteed with high margins, the targets barely budge.

It's a repeat of the BlackBerry show. Kinda tiring isn't it?

Too bad I can't find the Colbert Report segment about just that. IIRC, in the segment, Colbert referenced a Brady Bunch episode where one kid was trying to get into a car, and everytime the kid got close, the car moved and the kid couldn't get in. Whoever was driving the car didn't want the kid to get in. Same case here.

[morganplus8]

These reports all kill me. Opining for years to drop the cash killer of handsets, and when they do, and profit is almost guaranteed with high margins, the targets barely budge.

Posted via CB10

I hear you brother, you knew they would value it as a revenue flop as soon as the earnings flop argument fell through. I don't care what they think as the company is setup for positive surprises now, nothing like unit sales to worry about here. Radar, IP, contracts for out sourcing patents for hardware and maybe a monster sale of the hardware side of the business, not to mention all sectors are doing well now.

Where do we close today, options at $ 8.00/shr suggest $ 8.00 or higher, we'll see if they want to move 8 MM shares at the close or not! GL

OOPS! Looks like the Puts are in the money today!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Let's not take things out of context. Q2 has always been their low quarter.

Why don't you spread that out over six quarters and re-analyze.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

The real issue is what happened to the software "organic" growth - year over year. Take out their buying Good and what would they have had? Even with Good... what do they have, Good was reporting over $200 Million in revenues before the buyout.

I think Chen is on the right track and everything... but they are going to be a much smaller company before the dust settles on those BIS Service Fees and the balance of hardware revenues... as I doubt the licensing will be anywhere nears as much as them selling their own (just will be profitable).

[theRock1975]

The real issue is what happened to the software "organic" growth - year over year. Take out their buying Good and what would they have had? Even with Good... what do they have, Good was reporting over $200 Million in revenues before the buyout.

I think Chen is on the right track and everything... but they are going to be a much smaller company before the dust settles on those BIS Service Fees and the balance of hardware revenues... as I doubt the licensing will be anywhere nears as much as them selling their own (just will be profitable).

The good merger was finalized on November 2, 2015. At that time, BlackBerry estimated $160 million revenue increase (Annual) from the acquisition. That's $40 million per quarter.

This quarter, the software revenue increased 89% to $138 million compared to the same quarter last year. That's about $65million increase. If $40million was from Good, $25 million was organic.

These are rough estimates of course.


Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

[QUOTE=world traveler and former ceo;12608476
... may have to buy a couple of Passport SE's to hold me over, in the meanwhile lol

From my awesome Passport

Posted via CB10[/QUOTE]
just ordered another passport se and dtek50. dtek50 is a pleasant surprise. looks like that dtek50 will be daily driver. i like what blackberry picked from third party design. I hope it takes off. and the speaker sound of dtek50 is better than most blackberries. i think chen made the right move.

[bbjdog]

Reading material


http://blogs.blackberry.com/2016/09/...oftware-pivot/

[Sigewif]

Don't know if this article has been posted, but we might have one more phone to look forward too.


BlackBerry CEO mulls release of one last in-house designed handset

Sadly, he certainly has not made it easy to market any phone that is released now and going forward (whether a last in-house phone or a re-branded one made by another company). He damaged the narrative by HOW he announced the end of in-house phone manufacturing. He should have announced it by first clearly stating that there would be future BlackBerry branded phones. Giving that time and energy. I know people wanted to hear about the end of the in-house production and that was an important announcement. But as the saying goes in the vernacular, "It ain't what you say, but the way that you say it." Most of the world believes there will be NO more BlackBerry phones. PERIOD, branded or otherwise. It is all over the press. I saw article after article from around the world. People do not pick up the nuance of the "one(s) left in the pipeline" or the "one(s) that will be produced by licensees" so quickly after such an announcement. They move on. He should have prefaced his announcement and embellished it with the fact that there will still be BB branded phones. He has make it much more difficult for BB to market anything BB branded now. If a phone comes out it will be even harder to market than the Priv. It will have to be a mighty Phoenix to gain sales traction, except among people like us who follow the BB news closely. Advertising line: "Out of the ashes... " I have owned a small business for 30 years and I know how important the message is. I know, we are just little guys, but we would have been squashed years ago if we had been so sloppy with our message. You can destroy your sales by a few missteps in how you say things. I do not believe Mr Chen intended to do this but English is not his first language and It seems as though he doesn't have a language word-smith to help him with craft his announcements. He has made the same types of mistakes numerous times.

[BanffMoose]

Sadly, he certainly has not made it easy to market any phone that is released now and going forward (whether a last in-house phone or a re-branded one made by another company). He damaged the narrative by HOW he announced the end of in-house phone manufacturing. He should have announced it by first...

Perhaps. But keep in mind how many players are involved long before the announcement came out. BlackBerry had to have consulted carriers, suppliers, major customers, potential HW licensees, etc. long, long before making the announcement. By the time they tell US, everything's been set in motion.

Besides, remember that BlackBerry had little carrier support for the past several years. Marketing won't help if carriers refuse to carry or sell BlackBerry.

Posted via CB10

[sati01]

Let's not take things out of context. Q2 has always been their low quarter.

Why don't you spread that out over six quarters and re-analyze.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

I start in Q4 Fy16 because I don't want to estimate the revenue contributed by Good and adHoc.

I don't think there is seasonality in the Software business. So, sequential quarters are comparable.

One time Technology licensing revenue could introduce distortions, but in both sequential and YoY comparisons.

Chen said he expected a decline of the EMM revenue as the service is commoditized and sold bundled with other services by more integrated vendors.

[bbfort]

Sadly, he certainly has not made it easy to market any phone that is released now and going forward (whether a last in-house phone or a re-branded one made by another company). He damaged the narrative by HOW he announced the end of in-house phone manufacturing. He should have announced it by first clearly stating that there would be future BlackBerry branded phones.

Totally agreed with you on how the message was delivered, and the potential damage and devaluation of the BlackBerry brand as a smartphone brand. I don't think it's a language issue though. When it comes to hardware, Chen seems to comment like an outsider than a committed insider. Time and again, the company had to scramble to control the damage after he spoke to the media. Just like his remark about Priv not as secured as some other Android phone had all but destroyed Priv's credibility and marketing campaign (and of course the pricing didn't help). I like Chen's strategies and believe he is the best CEO for saving and turning around the company, but as far as the hardware business is concerned, he has been more like a roadblock than a saviour.

[CDM76]

Totally agreed with you on how the message was delivered, and the potential damage and devaluation of the BlackBerry brand as a smartphone brand. I don't think it's a language issue though. When it comes to hardware, Chen seems to comment like an outsider than a committed insider. Time and again, the company had to scramble to control the damage after he spoke to the media. Just like his remark about Priv not as secured as some other Android phone had all but destroyed Priv's credibility and marketing campaign (and of course the pricing didn't help). I like Chen's strategies and believe he is the best CEO for saving and turning around the company, but as far as the hardware business is concerned, he has been more like a roadblock than a saviour.

He made his decision long ago about closing hardware. He just had to draw it out and set terms of when / why close it to appease the Blackberry enthusiasts and governments. A sad day indeed

Posted via the CrackBerry App on DTek50

[bspence87]

I start in Q4 Fy16 because I don't want to estimate the revenue contributed by Good and adHoc.

I don't think there is seasonality in the Software business. So, sequential quarters are comparable.

One time Technology licensing revenue could introduce distortions, but in both sequential and YoY comparisons.

Chen said he expected a decline of the EMM revenue as the service is commoditized and sold bundled with other services by more integrated vendors.

Q1 F16 - $137mil - includes IP
Q2 F16 - $73mil
Q3 F16 - $154mil - includes IP
Q4 F16 - $$130mil

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[_dimi_]

And to get to 681 mio (30% growth on top of 524 mio) this fiscal year JC will need another 2 quarters of roughly 180 mio. Including SAF, we'd be looking at a +/- 1 billion dollar company just from software and SAF.

If he can then do another year of +/- 25% growth, than we're looking at +/- 850 mio in revenue from software , and again, including SAF at +/- 1 billion dollars. The year thereafter he can get to a +/- 1 billion software company with 'just' 15-20% growth and no SAF.

These figures do not include any future acquistions.

I hope JC is building a path towards stable quarterly software revenue of > 200 mio over the next 6-12 months. If he can do that, does it really matter anymore where the revenue streams come from as long as they get to a level of good profitability?

Morgan, does the volatility in software bother you? Do you think JC is slowly levelling it out, hopefully with a plan to get to a billion dollar software company (excl. SAF) in a year or 2?

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Most of the world believes there will be NO more BlackBerry phones..

Depending on licensing, that could be the reality in many markets. Even where they do exist, given Chen is happy if they low end, made by second and third tier players and have no enhanced security - I'm not sure how many people here will see as being 'true' blackberry devices.

So you could import a Doogee Blackberry phone and take the chance it works on a US band - but would you want to?


I doubt Chen expects that many licensees and they have already acknowledged that other major players have their own security software and that they expect no interest from them. This is a way for Chen to shut hardware without having to simply shut hardware and get on (rightly) with his actual business - being a software company.

[_dimi_]

I start in Q4 Fy16 because I don't want to estimate the revenue contributed by Good and adHoc.

I don't think there is seasonality in the Software business. So, sequential quarters are comparable.

One time Technology licensing revenue could introduce distortions, but in both sequential and YoY comparisons.

Chen said he expected a decline of the EMM revenue as the service is commoditized and sold bundled with other services by more integrated vendors.

Gartner / IDC /... still expect BlackBerry's EMM target market to be worth 2,8 billion USD by 2018 - the overall EMM market I believe they project to be worth close to 20 billion USD by that time. Add another few billion for the emergency mass notification market (no kidding, look it up), and the secure file sharing market (I haven't researched this market).. I think JC made that comment about one-trick MDM pony's like MobileIron.

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

Depending on licensing, that could be the reality in many markets. Even where they do exist, given Chen is happy if they low end, made by second and third tier players and have no enhanced security - I'm not sure how many people here will see as being 'true' blackberry devices.

So you could import a Doogee Blackberry phone and take the chance it works on a US band - but would you want to?


I doubt Chen expects that many licensees and they have already acknowledged that other major players have their own security software and that they expect no interest from them. This is a way for Chen to shut hardware without having to simply shut hardware and get on (rightly) with his actual business - being a software company.

JC's plan could prove to be a (fairly small) success in markets like Indonesia, India, perhaps even China, which could make him want to hold on to the hardware IP. But, I don't see the day coming that I won't be able to buy an Android device with BlackBerry keyboard (edit: in Europe, US,..). This asset is way too valuable. In that case my money would be on Samsung.

Posted via CB10

[W Hoa]

The next major mobile platform will come with an engine and windshield wipers - The Globe and Mail

�Auto makers are realizing that their future is going to obviously lie in building vehicles, but a lot of the value and business benefits that they�re going to realize isn�t necessarily going to be in metal bending, it�s going to be in the services they can provide on that platform in the vehicle,� said Grant Courville, senior director of product management for QNX Software Systems, the company behind Blackberry�s operating system. �That�s why we�re seeing a lot of non-traditional automotive companies working with ourselves and others, to see how they can add value to the car.�

[cgk]

JC's plan could prove to be a (fairly small) success in markets like Indonesia, India, perhaps even China, which could make him want to hold on to the hardware IP. But, I don't see the day coming that I won't be able to buy an Android device with BlackBerry keyboard (edit: in Europe, US,..). This asset is way too valuable. In that case my money would be on Samsung.

Posted via CB10

That's fair enough and could happen - my own caveat is that the head of devices has already said they expect no interest from major players like Samsung - his own words were:

Pini admits that such partnerships are not likely to occur with Android’s biggest names, who have already developed their own in-house security and productivity offerings. The company is instead targeting what he deems “second- and third-tier” handset makers.

I'm not going to get into an argument about the value of the keyboard IP as we'll not agree (and actually neither of us has anyway to prove our point so it's a pointless argument) but I'll just say my feeling is its value is yours.


Have a nice day.

[_dimi_]

That's fair enough and could happen - my own caveat is that the head of devices has already said they expect no interest from major players like Samsung - his own words were:



I'm not going to get into an argument about the value of the keyboard IP as we'll not agree (and actually neither of us has anyway to prove our point so it's a pointless argument) but I'll just say my feeling is its value is yours.


Have a nice day.

It's good that you mentioned that you think the keyboard is worthless.

Otherwise I could say that Pini only spoke about the likelihood of them doing a partnership with Samsung for example since they already have their security offering (Knox) and productivity offering (Focus). However, that does not mean that they can't license out or sell the BlackBerry keyboard (with for example exclusivity in Europe/US). JC too mentioned that he hasn't decided yet what to do with the keyboard IP.

I thought Samsung could be interested since they produced that awfull add-on keyboard, then there is the Typo keyboard lawsuit,... but hey, what do I know.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

It's good that you mentioned that you think the keyboard is worthless.



Posted via CB10

I wouldn't go as far as saying its worthless - I just don't think it's as much as a treasure chest as people think in IP terms. It's really not clear there is much of an expressable market for keyboards or if there is - it seems to be quite low. However you could be right and samsung will license it and sell tens of millions of a keyboard device. That's the only way any of us will be able to tell if there is still a market for keyboard phones - if a stronger brand sells them.