[OMGitworks]

No, those are not the only 2 possibilities. The 3rd possibility is that they produced plenty of Z10, more than enough to meet the top-end of their estimate, and still could not meet demand because Z10 IS SELLING BEYOND EVEN THEIR WILDEST DREAMS. Suggesting that Thor should resign because of a blow-out success would be the worst idea I've ever heard.

I hope you are right and I agree if they sold 2-3M then he is certainly not to blame. If they did less then 1.25M I'd say they lost a large number of potential sales due to supply constraint. Then I would simply say what I started with, they didn't dream big enough and didn't trust themselves and BB10 eoiugh to go big. . We will see soon. I am concerned that store allocations seem to be very small in Canada and the UK. The fact that many people report that they can't get one also concerns me. I hope it is because of what you say and they are over 1-1.5M for the quarter.

Did anyone do the math on Thor's statement that Z10 did 150% of any previous launch, that might give us a clue. Anyone know how many BB7 handsets were sold last Q? Thanks.

[chrysaurora]

Sure, I'll give you several charts on what is going on here.

Second chart is a closeup:
Attachment 137400
The next chart is a closeup of our trading minus the close for Friday, this occured at 3:30 PM/ 32.2 million shares and a low on that chart of $ 13.23/shr. This is a beautiful chart if we had bounced off this uptrend line and closed around $ 13.55/shr, BUT we didn't. Note how orderly the sell-off has been, other than a couple of panic drops, this sell-off has been placed inside a channel of its own and driven down methodically.

Stupid question, but the upper blue line is going to $90. Is that where we are headed based on technical charts? Of course, news trumps everything but if get good news during every ER (eg: if we beat street estimates every quarter, increase cash reserve every quarter), are we headed for $90 in a year? Is that what this chart shows?

[Andrew4life]

Stupid question, but the upper blue line is going to $90. Is that where we are headed based on technical charts? Of course, news trumps everything but if get good news during every ER (eg: if we beat street estimates every quarter, increase cash reserve every quarter), are we headed for $90 in a year? Is that what this chart shows?

lol, don't misread the label of the RSI as the price. The 90 is the RSI, not the price. Also, technical charts cannot really predict much more than a few weeks or months because as you said, news trumps everything.

[chrysaurora]

lol, don't misread the label of the RSI as the price. The 90 is the RSI, not the price. Also, technical charts cannot really predict much more than a few weeks or months because as you said, news trumps everything.

Haha! How stupid of me. Thanks for clarifying!

[fedakd]

An iOS user that loves Z10 so much he's made the switch. The truth comes out eventually...(Sorry, Forbes!)

[kfh227]

That guy is a good talker. He should be on CNBC hyping the Z10 for BBRY.

[BBNation]

Bull predicion by Indian tech show, Launch Monday morning 6am PST live by one of top hottest bollywood actor, he received all top awards this year..Mumbai population alone 18 millions, 5 big cities alone more than 100 million population. Millions of high income users that include politicians, enterprises, actors, high tech companies such as TATA, Wipro, tech support centres, progammers..
Is the BlackBerry comeback already on? : NDTV Gadgets

whisper un-confirmed pre-order number is 50k,

[john1110]

He missed BB Balance. So Global can switch to Z10. This gus knows how to talk!

An iOS user that loves Z10 so much he's made the switch. The truth comes out eventually...(Sorry, Forbes!)

[silversun10]

from all accounts by now i think it is safe to say that Z10 has passed the test of is this phone a viable product.
perhaps not for all legacy BB users and perhaps not for app addicts, but it leaves enough room for an entirely new following.
so then the next problem is how do you finance the roll out?
Wall Street is awash in money so if a company like BB needs money to finance the launch and roll out the money will be there.
the only thing is money does not come free, so the question is what will be the price?
Issue shares? Shorters are helping out the financiers with knocking down the price
Loan? Low interest rates, so that would be an option
Take over? Shorters are helping out any potential buyers for a take over at a bargain

Who knows what will be next, but it is unlikely for BB to fail because the production falls behind the sales,
this problem will get solved one way or another............

[lcjr]

We should somehow get that video out across the globe.

[Eiman187]

Hello. I wonder if there are any thoughts on bbry stock price on monday?

[morlock_man]

Line ups in India = stock goes up.

[Luke Barrie]

Hello. I wonder if there are any thoughts on bbry stock price on monday?

I want to say that it will turn around and head back northwards now that the bears have done some damage and there is plenty of space for them to become bulls for profiting on the way back up. however, its almost as likely that they will continue to force it down for a few more days unless we see a positive report with confirmed numbers

[Tinomane]

I think the only way we get a bump this week is if a U.S carrier announces an actual concrete release date in early march.

[Eiman187]

Dont you think that the stock went down enough to attract new investors?

[Bbnivende]

Line ups in India = stock goes up.

If they could afford to buy it. BB needs a low cost Z5 and Q5 in the worst way. Even better ... license BB10 or BB7 to an Indian Manufacturer. Apparently there are 900 million cell phones but only about 20 million smart phones ... the untapped potential is huge BUT BB will go slow... very slow to develop this market.

The need for low price phones is one issue but here is another problem for BB in India:

BlackBerry Services to be axed if DoT norms are not met

[Charles Martin1]

Dont you think that the stock went down enough to attract new investors?

Nah, a lot of potential investors that may have been on the fence likely feel it's not worth it until something factual firms things up.

[Charles Martin1]

If they could afford to buy it. BB needs a low cost Z5 and Q5 in the worst way. Even better ... license BB10 or BB7 to an Indian Manufacturer. Apparently there are 900 million cell phones but only about 20 million smart phones ... the untapped potential is huge BUT BB will go slow... very slow to develop this market.

There's tons of money in India...they'll buy more than Canada will or can.

[chrysaurora]

There's tons of money in India...they'll buy more than Canada will or can.

Yes. Lots of Z0/Q10 can be sold in India and China. But z5 and q5 (just giving fictious names to low-mid-range devices, for the sake of this post) WILL sell EVEN MORE! Bold sells well in India but Curve sells even more.

[Markymark 23]

Oh brother. I've read dribble before but this one takes the cake. Like one of the responders states, the replies to garbage like this are about the only thing that makes the article (and ones like it) worth reading. FWIW everyone.....

BlackBerry: Little Evidence It Can Deliver - Seeking Alpha

[MrBurns2U]

Global outage of BBM on some Z10's. Not good...Blackberry or Rogers can't say when fix is coming. Been out since Sat on my Z10. When this news hits the wire you know how the bears will play this. I'm not satisfied with the PR coming out of Blackberry. This is one of the major features of BB. I smell a share price drop Monday morning!

[Bbnivende]

There's tons of money in India...they'll buy more than Canada will or can.

Interesting Article ..

Will the new BlackBerry click in the Indian smartphone market? - Livemint

I guess you are right that BB could sell as many Z10's as Canada ... but BB's needs a cheap phone strategy as well.

[kfh227]

INDIA

From:
Will the new BlackBerry click in the Indian smartphone market? - Livemint
this:

Kristian Tear, chief operating officer, said India is roughly a $4 billion market for smartphones that cost over $500 even though it pales in comparison with China (pegged at $40 billion) and the US (around $60 billion).

India: $4B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 8,000,0000 phones. (0.6% of population)
China: $40B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 80,000,0000 phones. (6% of population)
USA: $60B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 120,000,0000 phones. (33% of US population)

Seems like India is not that important. Not saying that getting 10% of India is not important. But the USA is way more important. 1% of the USA marketbase will trump 10% of India marketbase.

[Sqoon]

People don't buy other phones because it is sold out, they just go to another store. Seriously, no one in the market for the z10 will buy the iPhone because they had to wait for the z10.

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

INDIA

From:
Will the new BlackBerry click in the Indian smartphone market? - Livemint
this:

India: $4B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 8,000,0000 phones. (0.6% of population)
China: $40B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 80,000,0000 phones. (6% of population)
USA: $60B market for $500+ phones. That's a market of 120,000,0000 phones. (33% of US population)

Seems like India is not that important. Not saying that getting 10% of India is not important. But the USA is way more important. 1% of the USA marketbase will trump 10% of India marketbase.

They're all important...