View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- 02-13-13, 09:04 AM #4855
If we go up from here, good. If we go down little bit more before heading up, even better.
- CrackBerry Addict
02-13-13, 09:05 AM #4856
- 588 Posts
All of you should just make a $ collection... for a small fee, I will sacrifice my shares for the greater good of the folks here because I guarantee you the moment I sell:
1. Samsung AND Sony will announce hardware partnerships with BB
2. Home Depot will experience the wrath of viruses, malware, spyware, and bad kitchenware sales, the likes of which the world has never seen.
3. Skype will announce total allegiance to BB and will drop other platforms, especially WP.
4. U.S. Customs and Immigration Dep't will announce that they will stick with BB after all. To further profess their love for BB10, they will rename their division to "U.S. Customs and Immigration and BlackBerry10-Has Impressed-US Dep't"
5. All Z10 owners will each get a 10 minute chance to operate the "Canadarm" on the International Space Station (using their highly coveted phones of course)
Last edited by m0de25; 02-13-13 at 10:42 AM.
- CrackBerry Genius
02-13-13, 09:09 AM #4857
- 2,433 Posts
Okay, normally I wouldn't come back with another chart but this is worth repeating here.
The latest chart:
We touched the lows of Monday and held onto the 10-dma here, today, we are just below the 10-dma and the the stock wants to pop. You can see the Sell side is weak as the stock goes from negative to positive in a couple of trades. Also note the the 10-dma has turned up and is heading for the 5-dma which is the indicator for a rally. The 5-dma has turned down thus the gap between the two is closing. Now look at the support, the uptrend line which has provided support for many months now, is at $ 14.00/shr. And so the traders have a downside target of only $ 14.00/shr and an upside target of $ 21.00/shr. Which way do you think they can take this this, i.e., the path of least resistance?
There is also a small downtrend line that formed over the past few days and we touched that first thing this morning at $ 15.42/shr. That is our goal today, to rally above this line and set up up for a new wave upward.
The reason the stock has stalled out is the fact that the lows (re: uptrend line) are climbing at a terrific rate here, we are looking at a bottom of $ 14.00/shr, up from much lower levels just a couple of weeks ago. This is quite the rally we are seeing unfold here. What's the problem? The problem is that in order for the stock to make its next run to the top of the channel,we would need a reason for it to trade higher than just about every analyst thinks it can go over the next 12 months! That's a tall order. And so the stock has found a resting level below the best 12 month targets out there for now. It takes news, the kind of news that gives analysts a moment to think of rising those targets and we don't have that kind of news until data is released. And so we can move to $ 17.00 and back to support until BLackBerry gives us a reason to move higher. As long as the uptrend line holds, we are going higher, but we can't get above those high projections of $ 19.50/shr until the company gives us hope for better times ahead.
I see us putting in a stop down here and popping into the close of the weekend. Don't expect much until BB gives us something to rally on though. Keep in mind that this play is far from over, there is huge upside here and that's without a single short covering.
I would comment on shorting covering here too, shorts can't cover within the data given of "shorts/daily volume = days to cover", this isn't possible. They have covered 5.6 million shares over a 15 day period, another way to look at it is that they have covered 5.6 million/11 trading days = 500,000 shares a day. Now, if you take 130 million shares and divide them by .5 million per day, that's your "days to cover". They would need 260 trading days to go to zero. So now you can see the problem they have!!! There aren't enough trading days this year for them to get out of this mess at the rate they are covering. I also suspect the number is lower only because it was a month end, it is back to higher levels already. There's some thoughts for you while you watch the stock today. It can't go much higher without news and it is near its lows now. Something in the middle, to buy some time, is what will likely happen. Good luck!
- 02-13-13, 09:18 AM #4859
If shorts aren't being forced to cover, maybe those 5.6MM trades were the bears that turned into bulls and decided to cover. There is no possible way it would take 260 trading days to cover 25% short interest. No way. That doesn't make any sense.
I could be completely wrong though.
Edit: looks like we're in the 14s now...
- CrackBerry Addict
02-13-13, 09:24 AM #4863
- 665 Posts
I like your analysis, never really looked at the technical side of things so much. Thanks for the input morgan.
Amazing how none of the small positive bits of news are making it to any of the media. UK, Canada, UAE, now them getting a deal for bbm voice and bbm video there, and there a number of additional launches coming in the coming weeks.
I guess the stock has nothing to really push it anywhere at the moment.
- CrackBerry Genius
02-13-13, 09:42 AM #4868
- 2,226 Posts
- 02-13-13, 09:46 AM #4869
Now of course if they can organized among all shorts to try and sell more spread out and slowly, but no market is that organized. It's a "free market".
- 02-13-13, 09:59 AM #4870
When you see them covering, I guarantee you will see at least 120-150MM+ in volume that day, and that will mostly be shorts covering. It won't be 1.5 days to cover, but I'd say maybe 3 days to cover with 120-150MM+ avg each day.
This will hit $14 before it goes up if there is no news. Especially since mid-March is so far away there isn't much speculation going on in terms of an early US release. Why is BB being so secretive of the sales numbers........
- 02-13-13, 10:04 AM #4871
"A double bottom is the end formation in a declining market"
If you acknowledge we are in an uptrend (relative to the time span of a double bottom), then identifying a double bottom would be a clear misapplication of technical analysis.
(The current "double bottom" took roughly a month to form so you should look back in stock movement for at least 3 to 6 months to determine trend direction. We are definitely not in a downtrend.)
I am not suggesting whether BBRY stock price can or will move up or down, BTW. I am merely pointing out that that is not a "double bottom" using proper technical analysis.
Last edited by sentimentGX4; 02-13-13 at 10:16 AM.
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