View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- CrackBerry Addict
02-02-13, 07:18 PM #3726
- 859 Posts
I think the stock found it's new bottom for a while. The only thing that would drive is down is some really bad news. Watching the stock last few days, every time there was a dip, buyers would quickly jump in and bring back the price. I think with some preliminary sales data this thing could pop. I expect the stock to consolidate at 13-14 for a while before making a move.
- CrackBerry Addict
02-02-13, 11:07 PM #3731
- 548 Posts
Even from a business side. Think about how much money that is. 1/3 of all the cash in their entire company to advertising and probably closer to all of it if you exclude foreign holdings, working capital, and required holding securities. How risky would that be?
- 02-02-13, 11:17 PM #3732
At this point, the graph is showing a VERY clear head and shoulders reversal forming.
Head and shoulders (chart pattern) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I have insisted that a head and shoulders would form since the first peak. For those still long, sell at the next $14 peak and do not look back! Approaching the $14 resistance, look for weakening upward momentum to affirm the pattern. Good luck investors. You have been sufficiently warned.
- 02-03-13, 01:30 AM #3733
I believe both of your analysis' have merit. Morgan is clearly pro-RIM and you two are against it. However, time will tell which way it will go as I personally believe that fundamentals will trump technicals once we have a good insight as to how well the Z10 has been selling.
Any external event can ruin it in a snap. (These examples are very unlikely to happen =>)
A global exploit touching android and/or apple ? We'll hit the sky.
A security breach in BB10 ? We'll crash to the ground.
(These will be the metrics we'll deal with in the newt few weeks =>)
Successful launch in CAN and Europe ? Climb, babe, climb.
Moderate launch ? stand still
This said being long with a 2-3years view.
- 02-03-13, 05:23 AM #3736
it is estimated that they spend around $4 billion in advertising and then about the same about in sales promotions and then the same again in other marketing.
- 02-03-13, 10:07 AM #3739
In previous comments, I agreed with Morgan's calls for higher prices because of what I saw on the charts.
To paraphrase a favorite movie, Technical analysis isn't personal, it's business.
- CrackBerry Master
02-03-13, 10:35 AM #3740
- 1,295 Posts
and when it comes to your #2, there is no clear island, all the price has to do(as you indicated), is jump to 14
and voila that gap is gone as well, so we will see what is next...
- CrackBerry Genius
02-03-13, 11:12 AM #3742
- 2,396 Posts
Thanks for your comments here. You are right, there are plenty of additional factors that go into technical trading. My goal here is to apply some simple thoughts to the process to get everyone on the same page. This chart is a historical representation of where the stock has been, and it implies to some extent, where the stock can go, until additional factors change the rules of the game. If, on the basis of looking at this trading pattern, you can conclude that $ 25.00/shr in the short-term makes little sense, and that further, the likelihood of $ 6.00/shr is out of the cards, then we are getting somewhere. Based upon the data, we were "likely" to hit a new nominal high, at $ 18.00 plus, and assuming nothing earth shattering happens in the launch, drop back to support. I did mention that there is little support anywhere near its current price at that time. So now we are back down to the bottom of the channel, it is also at the 50-dma and RSI is at 44, historically we bounce off this level of support and begin a new rally from here. This time we broke below the uptrend line which is a great cause for concern than ever before. So what do we look at to help us determine where we go next? Do we look at the over 450 million shares traded, the formation of the trades of the past, like waterfall formations, H&S or +/- Volume, momentum etc.,??? There is that one factor, the short position, that everyone is attached to, it likely grew during the latest sell-off and worth considering too.
At some point, members like you will begin to do some research and question the action of the stock, then we can take this discussion to a much higher level than present. I watch 2/3 minute charts, +/- volume and media sentiment, I also watch the general market to see if we can hold or rally from here too. Then there is the potential for additional news on this play that can trump all technical patterns. There are a number of variables that move the stock and one of them is the ability of the pros to take out sell-stops below support. They went hunting for sell-stops and got plenty of them this past week, this game gets a little more challenging when they step outside the normal trendlines for an hour to take stock away from weak hands.
I'm always concerned about milestones being broken like the 50-dma, and to this, we have to look at what comes next. If we close below the 50-dma this week, maybe even on Monday, we can expect the stock to find support around RSI 30, that's normal, if it happens for reasons other than the stock itself, i.e., the general market drops a couple of 100 points, we can regain the trend quickly again. And so, just because the stock steps out of the channel, doesn't mean it is a confirmed trend change until the third day. Looking at tomorrow, BB will have news hitting the wire, it could be extremely positive, something like "sales of Z10 are huge", this is likely to drive short covering, not the shorts who are in it for months, but last weeks shorts, they will start a new trend.
The point of the chart is to show everyone where traders are likely to sell, i.e., at $ 18.00/shr on the last run, and where to buy, i.e., likely at $ 13.00/shr this week. If you follow the chart you have made plenty of money catching the reversals so far, at some point it doesn't work though and as we set the bar higher, i.e. higher lows, we are setting ourselves up for a breakdown in the trend. I don't think this trend is over at $ 13.00/shr based upon many different indicators at this time. The best indicator being the fact that more and more analysts are jumping ship and tagging $ 19.00 plus as their next target. We hated them on the downside and we love them on the upside. As for whether I am a bull or a bear, I actually short more stock then I have ever bought in my lifetime. You make far more money trading stock down then you do up, its a simple reason for looking for weak trades to short, this isn't one of them. Best of luck, sorry about the rambling!!
- CrackBerry Addict
02-03-13, 01:19 PM #3743
- 588 Posts
Here's my own professional analysis ...
Putting money on BlackBerry is like walking into a casino and heading straight for the roulette table with a wad of cash. Us longs are betting on BLACK and the shorts are betting on RED... (Better odds than Peter Misek!)
Last Wednesday, January 30 2013, the roulette wheel was spun and the ball landed on RED because of the botched presentation and botched US product availablity.
If Thor and team learned how to present the product to the world properly with "laser focus", if the US was included in this first wave of availability, and if there was an ounce of surprise or wow factor at launch, everyone holding onto their shares would have looked like geniuses. Heck, the product engineers didn't properly tweak the camera algorithms on the Z10 camera (so that bloggists and reviewers had less things to pick on) and even that detail is causing some negativity!
My point is, this is such a fine line that we are dancing on. Could still go either way, but if BlackBerry delivered the basics like they led us to believe, I would be holding my shares long with confidence. Now, I'm not so sure, frankly. One thing is sure, there are only a few spins left on this roulette wheel.
Last edited by m0de25; 02-03-13 at 03:27 PM.
- CrackBerry User
02-03-13, 01:35 PM #3744
- 98 Posts
Even CrackBerry team is trying to clarify the situation but nobody is sure how exactly how exactly is working NOC with BB 10 and what are the benefits of current set up.
Because if we are losing the benefits to own the best email/messaging platform on the market what will stop the people to use iPhone or Android with their similar messaging capabilities. The only difference will be OS and I don't think that this is not enough. You are saying that most of the services provided by BIS are there except email and browsing, what are these services?
p.s. I am using BES with Google apps from 4 years.
- CrackBerry Addict
02-03-13, 01:42 PM #3745
- 963 Posts
Even after US market share fall. US is 22% of BB's total pie. I think this is because of all goverment, banks, fortune 500 companies still holding on BB due to security requirements..remember goverments and big companies take ever to switch from one platform to another..wheather from bb to something else and something else to bb. If BlackBerry get this, launch in US asap and 50% of current users upgrade to bb10 we talking to millions of phones. BB10 is the only phone that supports BYOD out of the box.
BB longs and instituional holders also need to take care of shorts to stop crazy manipluation eating us retailors.
Here is one from Analyst ericjackson
$RIMM market share by country: USA 22%, uk 11%, Saudi Arabia 7%, UAE 5%, Phillippines 4%, Canada 4%, France 4%, Spain 4% $BBRY
- CrackBerry User
02-03-13, 01:42 PM #3746
- 98 Posts
I am thinking to buy more shares on Monday. It seems that after all the sales are very good in UK, Hopefully in Canada also. I think that they will be good in India many people love BlackBerry there.
So I think that these are the news that will return the interest of the investors. Also I am sure that Q10 will be hit.
- 02-03-13, 08:17 PM #3749
@Morgan thank you for your considered follow up which I don't necessarily disagree with in a longer based view. @silversun I don't disagree necessarily with you either. Good technical traders try to ignore their biases and it's a big reason some have taken it away from humans and transferred decisions to computers. I try to take what the charts give me, but I admit it's not always possible, especially if I am holding a position.
FYI I generally don't trade individual stocks so I have no agenda here. An island is an island until it isn't. I said in my comment it would be easy to take that off he table but you have to beware of a weaker Monday open that might bring some more longs to take some money off the table. RIMM/BBRY has had a nice run from lows to highs and a correction as we are seeing was overdue. I would look to buy RIMM at a lower level than current from what I see on the chart.
As I have said to @Superfly and @Morganplus8 I have enjoyed the chance for a healthy discussion and exchange of ideas for fun and profit :-). A thread that has gone on as long as this one with some really interesting discussion is a credit to all who have contributed, that's not always the case here..
In the end buyers and sellers make markets that's what makes trading fun (most of the time). I think early trading on Monday will be important in the short term.
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