[greggebhardt]

I am out at $17.25 and not getting back in. I made my money

[Marc_Paradise]

I am out at $17.25 and not getting back in. I made my money

Congrats and well done - you made a fair killing

[greggebhardt]

Congrats and well done - you made a fair killing

I made almost $24k. Purchased and sold, multiple times, between 5000 and 5800 shares in the last weeks

No I can rest as the roller coaster was driving me crazy!.

[damthrill]

And you will probably continue to play it?

[StormieTwo]

To be fair that was a long time coming and hardly goes to bottom line in any relevant way. Has more to do with keeping in line with currency fluctuations in a timely manner.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the app dev still has the right to change their pricing also up/down, so in reality what transpires is a situation of price/value/content/sales +/- based on such. Currency fluctuation corrected is an aside.

Sure, but i still think someone read a headline, saw 'reduced revenue', and hit a big sell button. triggering a few stop losses on the way down.
Come on RIM! Time to show the world that not only can we create a revolution like mobile communications but we can also create the evolution of true mobile computing platform. (kind of like when we added the second hand to the Canadarm on the international space station.

[greggebhardt]

And you will probably continue to play it?

Not for a while. Lets see what RIMM delivers, I might get in long IF there are no hardware/software problems. The 9900 is still a reminder of how things can go VERY bad!

[drummer_god]

Lets not forget, the prophet said $19/share by end of week, possibly higher.
Don't lose vision of the long term: most here expect RIM to be trading higher than $20/share in a few months.
No need to panic today.

[greggebhardt]

I did panic several years ago when I lost near $75k with RIMM.

[Shanerredflag]

Can't wait for the launch...hope release is soon to follow as I want to see for myself how the device works. Then I'll either buy a bunch more...or not.

[OMGitworks]

Is Research In Motion a Star While Apple Is a Dog?

From some weeks back but nailed it!
Anyway I don't want to clog this thread up with more aapl vs RIM but you can certainly PM me if you want to continue a conversation of such.

Fair enough. I won't harass you anymore or clog up your PM box. Good luck, I really do hope RIM and RIMM do well, I have been waiting on BB10 since my upgrade came do in August! Hopefully Verizon comes thru soon.....

[TomJasper]

" Loon-a-tickComments (549)*
Isn't it funny that a good company ,no matter how hard they work for success can be shorted and ruined just because there is an instrument that can be used to create money(shorting) out of fear mongering.
Huge instituional flash trades are occuring at this very moment trying to scare investors who have chosen to reward RIMM with there investment. A huge flash buy in after hours trading trying to suck in new investors and then a huge sell early in the day to take their money. A big buy to pump the price and then a huge sale to try and destroy the Longs resolve.
I would say the price of RIMM is holding up well under the circumstances. All of us knew that some buyers would sell on the news....good news as a matter of fact. A liittle price dive is expected after a remarkable gain. " - SA

[TomJasper]

Stop loss hit, BANG lower ticker, short uses it as a cover, again stop loss hit, BANG lower ticker, short uses it as cover, my lord!

Considering lots of stop loss in place 2 days before launch this is like taking candy from the kid,fugly!

[Nindia]

Stop loss hit, BANG lower ticker, short uses it as a cover, again stop loss hit, BANG lower ticker, short uses it as cover, my lord!

Considering lots of stop loss in place 2 days before launch this is like taking candy from the kid,fugly!

This is why I'm holding off on placing stop loss orders right now. I might get burned but time will tell and my cost is low enough that I will walk away profitable even if the launch is a complete failure.

[Shanerredflag]

Brian Acker is on BNN...just gave a great quote, he says "look, the future is incredibly bright for RIM, this is only half way through the first inning for them...what the stock does short term who know but long term...very very good.

He offers some modeling charts on his FB page

Model Price | Facebook

[Shanerredflag]

For those that don't do FB

Research in Motion (RIMM) – “Coming out of the Blue”! (Update*1)
Leave a Comment Posted by ModelPrice Guy on January 19, 2013
Where would RIMM be trading if the company earned 1 cent a share?

Forgetting about the actual BB10 for a minute, and its capabilities or lack thereof – which everybody seems to be stuck.* A trader or investor in RIMM doesn’t have to be a seer technology guy/gal to figure this out while using model price charts.

If any public company earned 1 cent a share chances are they would be trading at EBV or our green line.* Why? That is our definition of book value.* This isn’t accounting book value that the industry uses; it’s our – model price – definition of book value.

So what are the chances of RIMM earning at least 1 cent a share?* I think high to very likely.* Even if the BB10 doesn’t sell very well certainly RIMM could lower expenses enough to break even couldn’t they?* Of course they could.* So let’s pick an analyst at random.* Say, Gus Papageorgiou at Scotia.* Gus has RIMM still losing $1.15 for fiscal 2013 (RIMM’s fiscal year end is the end of February) and making $0.86 for fiscal 2014.

So let’s go a step further.* Say RIMM can earn $1 a share.* Where would RIMM be trading?* RIMM would be trading at EBV+2 or EBV+3.* Why? See I didn’t choose $1 by accident.* $1 just happens to be the theoretical earnings of RIMM’s balance sheet.* And when companies can earn their TE, they usually trade at these levels, EBV+2 or EBV+3, even if there is no growth in their business. (See model price chart below for EBV level values on RIMM.)

So forget about the BB10, and it’s capabilities.* Just think about the probabilities of outcomes.* Can a public company break even?* Can a public company make their theoretical earnings?* If the answer is yes, then at least you know where the stock should trade.

So where is the stock currently trading.* Again I prefer stocks that have a positive transit up through EBV-3 or as I call “Coming out of the Blue”.* As I mention here in this blog, stocks that have a positive transit from EBV-3 the market is starting to form a connection to the company’s balance sheet.* The market is starting to believe what is on the company’s balance sheet.* So from here, at EBV-3, if the company can break even, then achieving EBV on their model price chart is relatively easy.* If the company can earn their theoretical earnings then achieving EBV+2 or EBV+3 can be relatively easy.* If this same company can grow their earnings and achieve faster growth then say their competitors EBV+5 is certainly very achievable.

Wait a minute you just made 490% or five times your money!

So big breath here!

I am NOT recommending RIMM.* I am NOT saying RIMM is going to EBV+5.* I giving you another set of questions to ask?* Remember in the model price world, the world I have created different questions can be asked, with concrete targets in the form of EBV lines which you can clearly see.

Here is a thought.* Why don’t you invest your money, a little at a time, as company’s transit above EBV-3?* One can have a portfolio of them.* Be like Buffet and never sell them.* Or as they start having negative transits you can sell these positions with potential substantial gains.

Be rational how you invest.* Consider risk and reward.* The higher the valuation the higher the risk, translates into the higher the EBV level the higher the risk.* Yes companies that are “Coming out of the Blue” are not sexy.* They are broken companies coming back from the brink.* The business press ignores them.* They have an odor to them.* Dumpster diving anyone!* But more then a few of these “Coming out of the Blue” stocks will become winners again.* At EBV+5 the business press will be lauding management as visionaries.* Awards will be given.* Mistakes will be made and the stock gets slammed.* The process starts all over again.

Bonus Coverage

And while I’m on a roll let’s compare Apple model price chart with that of RIMM’s.

Here is Apple’s model price chart.


Apple Inc. with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)
And here is RIMM’s.


Research in Motion with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)
What do you notice?* Apple has had two negative transits.* Apple actually had a negative transit of EBV+6 (which doesn’t show up on our chart, but it did) and this week transited down through EBV+5.

On the other hand RIMM, had a positive transit of EBV-3 back on November 25, 2012, which I blogged about here.* And in the last two weeks has had two positive transits of EBV-2 and EBV-1.* Yes, Apple is a better company.* Yes, Apple has better products.* However in the investment game this it’s about valuation NOT about how good the company and its products are.* ****, RIMM doesn’t even have a product yet!

P.S. Since my blog about RIMM on November 25, 2012 RIMM is up some 35%.* I hate cheerleading. I’m about outcomes as I’ve said many times before.* The good news about model price charts is they confirm to investors they are on the right track, as companies continue to transit either up or down through their EBV lines confirming investment positions in your portfolio.* In other words, after transiting above EBV-3, RIMM had two more positive transits confirming the original move back on November 25th.

P.P.S. After hitting a low of $6.22 US on September 24 many investors are put off purchasing shares of RIMM at the $15 dollar level. *”It’s gone up to fast”, “I will purchase shares when the BB10 is launched.”, etc. *With using model price theory and charts, the higher the stock price in some circumstances the less risk investors are taking. *Stocks “Coming out of the Blue” have less risk than stocks below EBV-3. *Stocks that are transiting up through their EBV lines, have less risk then stocks with negative transits when investors are long. *Stocks have less risk when at the bottom of their EBV zones then at the top.

[Superfly_FR]

Remember the hurrays whe shouted when the stock went above $16. IMHO between 15 and 20 there's nothing consistent to read.
The book value can be located in this area (I know, 25% is big gap lol) depending of the analysis.

I stand on my line. Stay cool. Long means 2yrs+ and we have to see what will append after launch.
I don't believe the stock will surge to my initial price ($10.5). and even if it will... I'll hold.

[Superfly_FR]

Remember the hurrays whe shouted when the stock went above $16. IMHO between 15 and 20 there's nothing consistent to read.
The book value can be located in this area (I know, 25% is big gap lol) depending of the analysis.

I stand on my line. Stay cool. Long means 2yrs+ and we have to see what will append after launch.
I don't believe the stock will surge to my initial price ($10.5). and even if it will... I'll hold.

+1K ^^^^ Wow ! this guy reads in my mind !
#sayItAgain

[TomJasper]

Very interesting read, thanks.

Brian Acker is on BNN...just gave a great quote, he says "look, the future is incredibly bright for RIM, this is only half way through the first inning for them...what the stock does short term who know but long term...very very good.

He offers some modeling charts on his FB page

Model Price | Facebook

[silversun10]

Remember the hurrays whe shouted when the stock went above $16. IMHO between 15 and 20 there's nothing consistent to read.
The book value can be located in this area (I know, 25% is big gap lol) depending of the analysis.

I stand on my line. Stay cool. Long means 2yrs+ and we have to see what will append after launch.
I don't believe the stock will surge to my initial price ($10.5). and even if it will... I'll hold.

traders that only wanted to trade the run up into the launch are getting out, booking fat profits, now the strong hands remain
into the launch and after, we will find out soon enough who will be right about the launch....

[TomJasper]

traders that only wanted to trade the run up into the launch are getting out, booking fat profits, now the strong hands remain
into the launch and after, we will find out soon enough who will be right about the launch....

If that's the case then they should have done it last week as they are presently holding up the show. I'm thinking there is more at play here, I don't buy they waited until 2 days before launch to cash out their gains, but hey that's just my opinion.

[mcmolineux]

If that's the case then they should have done it last week as they are presently holding up the show. I'm thinking there is more at play here, I don't buy they waited until 2 days before launch to cash out their gains, but hey that's just my opinion.

So you are worried that some bad news has leaked out re: launch that is spooking some people with this knowledge?

[TomJasper]

So you are worried that some bad news has leaked out re: launch that is spooking some people with this knowledge?

Not in the least, in fact I fully expect some minds to be blown.

What I mean is I don't buy these are retail selling at the onset. Tell me what retail trader has the kind of $$$$ to blow out that huge sell at open, thus causing a whack of stop losses to get it, that was NOT retail not a chance, nobody will convince me of that.

[mw12341]

I'll patiently wait this out to see what types of sales BB10 produces... there is a lot of potential for RIM to return to profit in the long run.

But geez! If I hadn't bought at the low, it would be very hard to take this seriously as an investment. The price seems to defy common sense -- it goes up or down dramatically on speculation over wording by the CEO or Lenovo's CEO , and yet the tangible profit-impacting announcements like the Visa NFC agreement, or the changes announced today at Blackberry World don't seem to interest investors.

I'm not a short... I have confidence that RIM is transforming in the right direction. I think I'll do myself a favour and stop watching this for a few weeks.

[Superfly_FR]

Short Squeeze A Side Show, Buy Rim's Shares For BB10 Market Share Upside - Seeking Alpha (sorry if posted already. gotta go).

[silversun10]

Not in the least, in fact I fully expect some minds to be blown.

What I mean is I don't buy these are retail selling at the onset. Tell me what retail trader has the kind of $$$$ to blow out that huge sell at open, thus causing a whack of stop losses to get it, that was NOT retail not a chance, nobody will convince me of that.

nobody said it was retail selling..........