View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- CrackBerry User
01-24-13, 10:56 PM #2676
- 30 Posts
Now that the stock is in the $18 range, there is nothing tangible to attribute that additional growth to. No increased sales, no specific strategy, no exact phone specs, etc... that would warrant the rise in stock price. That is why it can jump up and down 2-12% a day. Yes some stuff has leaked but it is not 100% for sure until it is announced by RIM officially.
This is an extremely volatile period for the stock and news will trump everything now and going forward. The kicker will be how the media embrace BB10 on the 30th. Even if BB10 is the greatest thing in the world, but it gets bad press from US analysts and journalists, the stock will dive and it can dive back to pre-hype levels of around $11. It is very likely that some major players are shorting the stock and can pull strings with their media contacts to get some negative press. This will help them cover their shorts without losing the shirts of their backs. The stock will eventually climb but the people shorting it will be saved some pain. Given the 137m shorts, this scenario isn't too far fetched.
If you have invested money that you will need a month from now, you probably would want to get out on the 29th or morning of 30th just in case the news isn't good. You don't want to be out say 30%-40%. If the news is good, then you can buy in mid rise and keep sitting on the stock. You can miss out on 5% for example but that's peanuts if you sit on it for a year and the stock goes up 300%.
If you have invested money that you don't have to see for a year or more, then you can afford to take a hit if the news is bad because the stock will climb up eventually if BB10 is as good as the leaks have proven it is.
It is important to always be 20% paranoid and expect the worst case scenario. Don't play around with money you cant afford to lose, and also don't be overly greedy/optimistic because it is very easy to get caught up in the hype. Don't bank on a short squeeze, or $150 predictions written by bob in his moms basement posting on this forum. Yes it is likely that it can all happen, probably the odds are in favour of it happening - just play it smart.
The smart way of playing it would be to give up 50% of your position pre-launch, and then decide what to do with the remaining amount after the announcement. Just my 2c.
- 01-24-13, 11:21 PM #2678
Just like few longs that purchased RIM in 30s, 40s, 50s and they decided to hang in there or sold..Shorts are in the same position most of them will hang in there until loses are extreme. My guess is that some shorts are recovered by now as when the sentiment is at lowest level there were about 50mil shorts and not 3 times. Based on develepments in last few weeks Jan 30th will not be disappointment, we all know what's coming. Just matter of availibilty. if they delay the availibilty by few weeks stock will tank, if first week of feb. it will rise. Tough decision,..sell now or wait..especially when your rim portion is in green and rest is red..
- 01-24-13, 11:25 PM #2679
[QUOTE=TomJasper;7883267]I ventured out into some other threads today, let me tell you, some angry iOS posters out there. Much more friendly in here,lol. Heck we have apple shareholders buying RIM here, we have different takes on where/when/how RIM is going to go and I have yet to see anything nasty or vindictive on this thread. We need to send out the "friendly patrol" and show them how to get along,lol.
- 01-24-13, 11:41 PM #2680
- 01-24-13, 11:58 PM #2682
Long post telling us how/when to buy/sell?
I would rather hear your own OPINION of what YOUR own strategy is.
Never tell ppl what to do with their investments, that's ONLY for qualified brokers, I only say that because I know this thread is monitored the same as many other stock threads are. Don't take it personal in the least, just saving you some potential grief.
So you have a crystal ball that says if BB10 blows everybody away,the shorts will get some media friends to put out bad press and we will be at $11 and in another sentence you state RIM is worth $15 pre-launch based just on present financials? What motivated you to write that obviously not well thought out synopsis?
You talk about investing money that one might need in a month from now and how when to invest same. Please tell me you're not speaking of or advocating "rent money" as an investment strategy.
Don't bank on a short squeeze or $150 predictions? Are you serious? I have yet to see a $150 prediction from anybody, more less $150 prediction at launch.
In regards to a short squeeze, it's happened a few times already, that's one of many reasons we are not at the $7 range today and yes it will happen again, if you doubt that then you are doubting some very well educated and experienced professionals who make investing their forte.
You say I should "give up" 50% of my RIM holdings before launch. Why would I do that, better yet why would YOU want me to do that? By extension I have to conclude you would want everybody to to that. What's the motive to that?
I could go on but I'll stop here and give you some time to think/edit.
- CrackBerry User
01-25-13, 01:36 AM #2688
- 30 Posts
Honestly man, I don't know what to say to your post. lol But I wont be editing mine.
You are right there is no Bob that lives in his moms basement predicting $150, that was sarcasm. The post was just a friendly reminder to be mindful of how you invest and tread carefully because the stock is volatile - especially if you are new to investing. I am entitled to my own opinion just as you are to yours.
People on here shouldn't listen to me, you, or anyone else for that matter. They need to digest everything, assess pros and cons, and decide for themselves. It is easy to sit in this forum and drink your own koolaid.
Nobody, even you, can tell with 100% certainty the date the phones will be available, or which phones, or the pricing, or the exact specifications including battery life or most importantly, how the media will react to all of this. Hence why the stock is volatile and you should tread carefully - especially if you are investing money you can't afford to lose.
Once upon a time this company called Enron was a sure bet. It is always better to be safe than sorry bud.
- 01-25-13, 02:22 AM #2691
Pfew ! What a read !!!
Guys, thank you for sharing your knowledge, this is amazing !
All I read sounds wise to me, the pros, the cons, the "conservatism" approach (be ready to miss 5% but cover your gains) etc ...
But, at the end, as a rookie observer, I'd like to share with you my over-simplistic view (witch is not an investment advice, etc.)
Current rally is powered by a "logical" reason :
No one still believe what the naysayers have stated for about 2 years now. We're back to what we might consider the "tangible book values" is (note : BB10 inventory has to be added as a tangible asset, in balance with intangible ones as patents. It's not 1 on 1, but it counts). Basically, this means that the current stock price, despite a roughly 3X since the lows is nothing but +/- the fair value of RIM, as if they never went in trouble, and operating nicely as the 4th or 5th player. In short : they're not dying; not now and not "next week" either. Forget about the past management and errors. We're in a "now" situation.
Watch my back :
That's a tricky game. We have here players with tons of cash and investors that are diversifying their position, based on whatever appl, MS, Nok or Google will report/announce/miss. Despite all the great explanations we can read above, all I (me, myself, alone) can read is : bull or bear, north or south, good or bad : these words have not the same meaning for me and them. Their interest is the following : make the stock value move, in whatever direction. While this would be necessarily capped, just imagine - as a mental representation - you bet on head or tail with an opponent that doubles its bet every time he loses. You cannot win. Because you'll get out of cash before they do (note: of course, this is only true with our scale of investment compared to theirs. This cannot be true "against the market").
(Edited ) This is particullary true when we are on a non revenue distribution situation; once the number Earnings Per Share (EPS ?) will be positive, the situation will likely change, hopefully to a more stable one
Market operators are conditioned by "antique-but-proven-true" rules. "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news" is one you've read on almost every page of this thread. Statistically these rules are TRUE because these operators have a portfolio of different stocks, with a defined global value. They think "global", not "focus on that value". There's zero attachment to a brand :"Never fall in love with your stock" is as important to them than "no bit of nooky in business" to us (note : I hope for you it is lol). They can move from one stock to another in a snap and this movement can cause another with no readable reason.
Where do I go from here ?
I'm not a stock trader (repeat after me, say it loud, at least once: you - if rookie as I am - must admit and remember this).
What I rely on, is the "plan" Thorsten Heins and his team have set a year ago; this was a 3-5 years market recovery, rational and efficient.
So far, despite the initial 3 months BB10 delay - the plan is running exactly as announced; this is a MAJOR point, as investment rely on trust-able management and deliverability.
I've played with the device and every new release of OS and SDK have brought my overall perception close to the highest level of satisfaction. I'm even amazed of this level, for a 1st iteration of a whole new platform (I'm in tech/I.T since 1989, when there was no hard disk in PCs ).
I've made an initial tiny investment with that in mind and a target frame of 3-5 years.
Following the stock is exciting and educational, but so far, I can barely read its move afterwards.
I trust M. Heins and the whole RIM team.
I stand, I do not play against the beast and I believe in 3-5 years, I won't have lost a penny (understatement) ... and I may well pay that used car for my daughters I was somehow "dreaming of" 18 months ago. I believe I can imagine its color, right now.
I support RIM [vision, strategy and goals] and I bought shares [because I believed this would be proven true].
Last edited by Superfly_FR; 01-25-13 at 07:41 AM.
- 01-25-13, 03:25 AM #2693
I learned long ago to read everything but trust only yourself. While many here have a strategy, all have been proven wrong one time or another. The best advice they have is do not invest what you can to afford to loose. There are betting sites that will give you better odds.
- 01-25-13, 03:29 AM #2694
Didn't quite get a chance to read through the comments of the past 2 pages, however I did get a sense that it was more of a negative tone towards the stock and a doubt that the rally can keep going. I'm glad you folks feel that way. Makes me happy to still be in the stock. Had you guys talk to the moon again, then it would be time to hit the sideline. Here's to a nice move today (Friday.) CHow.
- 01-25-13, 04:06 AM #2695
I support RIM and I buy shares !
I would like to request that all previous aapl shareholders please dump your investment dollars into rimm now that it's the next big thing.
Sent from my BlackBerry 9930
- 01-25-13, 06:02 AM #2696
- CrackBerry Abuser
01-25-13, 07:05 AM #2698
- 128 Posts
That news clip that was posted previously regarding the Apple/RIMM pair trade is now available on BBN's website.
Business Day PM : January 23, 2013
The trade being described would have been performing absolutely horribly over the past few months, especially this month. They would have had to have been in pain, and I can't believe that they wouldn't have been trying to roll it up...
I've only been thinking about one side of this trade (RIM). How do you roll up a trade where you shorted RIM to purchase AAPL? You sell AAPL, and buy RIM.
Last edited by cleacy; 01-25-13 at 07:33 AM.
- 01-25-13, 07:05 AM #2699
Sentiments can change for everything and that can happen quickly...I have been reading and researching pretty steadily on RIM for about a year. At first I thought, meh...they probably won't make it. That transitioned to hey...they sure are working hard...at least they're going down swinging. Now I am thinking this thing has become what may be the comeback of this century and one of the all time greats...talked about and taught in colleges and universities for decades to come...that great.
One never knows for sure though...I know I'm officially fascinated.
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