[allisos]

Am I completely off base by reading countless analysis articles, and no one really pointing out the EZ-Pass program basically eliminated the EMM revenue for BB for a year?

I signed my own company up for EZPass, and I was given free EMM until March of this year. BB's own site states they have issued 3.4 million BES 10 licenses. If retention is only 75% that would be about 2.5 million paying customers. Each license is a minimum of $23. I'm sure larger customers get a discount, but all the bells and whistles, I'm certain keeps the average paid price above the $23 dollar amount and closer to $40 per device, as the gold level costs around $90 per device.

That's $100 million missing from the revenue stream, that will suddenly appear in the June reports as most of the issues licenses were under the EZPass program. (Who wouldn't take the free offer, as it was for what you would have paid for anyway??)

Reports I've read quoted the EZPass program ending in December..... End it did... end registration for new EZPass customers. Everyone who signed up, continued getting a free service until March 2015.

I think the June reports are going to surprise a lot of people, especially if they upsell some services, and acquire new customers. 4 million phones with a $50 per device annual charge is $200 million, and that is well on their way to an overall increase (as predicted by Chen) in revenue on the whole as EMM isn't the only source of revenue for the company.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Several of the big accounting firms have been warning that their own surveys show that EZ Pass conversions to paying customers are much lower than expected, and have downgraded their ratings as a result. Of course, we'll have to wait for BB's report (the surveys could be flawed), but if the numbers were strong, we'd probably have heard more about it by now, especially with the stock downgrades.

[allisos]

Several of the big accounting firms have been warning that their own surveys show that EZ Pass conversions to paying customers are much lower than expected, and have downgraded their ratings as a result. Of course, we'll have to wait for BB's report (the surveys could be flawed), but if the numbers were strong, we'd probably have heard more about it by now, especially with the stock downgrades.

What I haven't seen in the reports.... What was the expected number of EZP conversions, and what was the survey results? What I have seen is a stock with a sharp cut off in volume activity over the last week, and the price going up....

[lnichols]

Chen was pretty diversionary in the conference call about EZ pass conversions. This should be a key metric yet he played dumb and said he didn't have the numbers. If things were good they would be crowing about it, but clearly they are not and they are being less than honest. Clearly their is a BlackBerry PlayBook still in the C suite that lays out how to be less than honest with your customers and shareholders.

Posted via CB10

[EchoTango]

The EZ Pass was in reaction to what other EMM providers were doing.

Both Mobiliron and Good are both in start-up phase and have given away licenses for free in great numbers. Both have gained market traction with this approach and continue to increase their respective user bases. It's really come down to a great game of "chicken" to see who can continue to provide free software the longest while still staying in business.

Clearly the deepest pockets will win.

[oneinfiniteloop]

As a matter of fact John Chen said that the BES pipeline is very good - remember he also said that he saw a huge jump in BES 10 licenses and that all those customers were preparing to move to BES 12! The second point he made was that Enterprises used an organized approach in deploying such systems. Third, he clearly said that he was surprised by some of the statements made by the analyst during their quiet period - because he couldn't respond to those - if Simona (from Goldman Sachs) was honest about what she had said, then why didn't she attend the Q4 earnings call? As always Goldman Sachs is onto their old tricks. As far as devices sales are concerned he categorically emphasized that Q4 was a transition quarter!

He also said that Work Life (Movirtu) is selling very well and that BlackBerry needed about 2 quarters for the software and services revenue to show a major uptick because BlackBerry needs to train the Carriers on deploying BES12 and other related services. When asked about how many of those were BES 12 licenses - if you listen in on that call you will hear him ask James if he can say that all are BES 12 licenses and James prompts him to say "BES 10" - John said that, but later added that, they are all moving to BES 12!

What I was more surprised was that he stated that they had 2200 customer wins in Q4 but the analyst didn't press him on the increase in license count! As of last Q3 it was 6.8 million licenses.

In his initial statement he said, BBM is slightly behind his target but that BTS (IoT side) is doing better than expected and that overall they expect to make $600 million! Later, during the Q&A he said that BBM is seeing an uptick and is doing better! - now that one confused me.

In fact, in an interview about ~3 months ago, he was asked question about making $600 million on Software sales alone by CNBC and he said, those who know me well know that I don't say something without being confident of reaching that target - he said, they intend to do better!

Posted via CB10

[allisos]

I don't agree with statements like... if they were doing well, they would crow about it...

Absolutely not. Getting positive leverage in the market is all about consistent over delivery. I would try my best to hide the numbers and remain vague...

This way when the quarterly reports come out, you consistently beat the street. Chen preached about profit for a year. He consistently beat the street profit expectation. Now he's preaching revenue. I'd expect them to beat revenue estimates consistently...

The competition should take notice if he ever predicts taking market share. See mobileiron.

Posted via CB10

[EchoTango]

I don't agree with statements like... if they were doing well, they would crow about it...

Absolutely not. Getting positive leverage in the market is all about consistent over delivery. I would try my best to hide the numbers and remain vague...

This way when the quarterly reports come out, you consistently beat the street. Chen preached about profit for a year. He consistently beat the street profit expectation. Now he's preaching revenue. I'd expect them to beat revenue estimates consistently...

The competition should take notice if he ever predicts taking market share. See mobileiron.

Posted via CB10

I agree with the view that Chen is very cagey with setting market expectations and commenting on current sales numbers. However, one of the hardest items to achieve is higher revenues as it is largely dependant on increasing market share, something Blackberry has been bleeding for some time. Clearly, BES12 is the cornerstone of Blackberry's turnaround and any movement either way speaks volumes about the company's effectiveness and market acceptance of the new products.

Next quarter should see a big improvement in the software number and a general upward trend in all four businesses as all the pieces are now in place and there can be no more excuses to explain away poor performance.

[Prem WatsApp]

I agree with the view that Chen is very cagey with setting market expectations and commenting on current sales numbers. However, one of the hardest items to achieve is higher revenues as it is largely dependant on increasing market share, something Blackberry has been bleeding for some time. Clearly, BES12 is the cornerstone of Blackberry's turnaround and any movement either way speaks volumes about the company's effectiveness and market acceptance of the new products.

Next quarter should see a big improvement in the software number and a general upward trend in all four businesses as all the pieces are now in place and there can be no more excuses to explain away poor performance.

Anal...ysts (I'm sometimes tempted to add an f in there, no, not the f-word, just the letter, LOL) haven't really touched and treated BlackBerry with velvety gloves most of the time... (God bless them!)

So some Chenanigans are to be expected. I don't suspect him to be outright lying in any way, but has to be careful. Rather beat low expectations than be too loud upfront and lose face... :-)

�   Passposted while waiting for the Z-lider....   �

[nt300]

Morgan Stanley? Goldman Sachs? Credit Suisse? ALL have there hand in the Mobileiron cookie jar. That same company that seems to be failing. Anything coming out of those firms about BlackBerry should be ignored.