[badiyee]

If the traditional model doesn't cut it, I suppose another model may?

(Mods, feel free to change the title as you see fit)

This thought is sparked from the thread
http://forums.crackberry.com/general...lopers-885286/

but I did not want to deviate / derail it so I created this new thread, and hopefully in the correct subforum as well.

Here's how I paint the entire picture from the manufacturer's perspective and the consumer's perspective.

From the manufacturer: If I am able to sell, then I will make some really thin margins. But 1 batch of 100,000 should have net profit.

From the customers: I know when I can get it, and I know I will get it.


Here's the plan, the way I see it. Is it feasible by BlackBerry? Maybe yes, maybe no. But assuming if its do-able, what would you do to sort out any potential kinks? So here I go:


From BlackBerry:
1. Create any devices with different form factors and shapes, with identical innards, even for low end version. Let's say I take a QW50HE and FTS50HE (QW stands for Qwerty, FTS stands for Full Touch Screen, HE means High End, LE would mean Low End, these are just examples I'm using for naming scheme and purposes of explaining my model), it should have the same processor, RAM, ROM, Antenna, speaker modules, basic logic board / motherboard chipsize, as many as they can.

2. Set 2 standard models as "de facto" choice, namely the QWQ50HE and FTS50HE as "available choices".
2a. Takes pre-orders, via national channels or via carrier distros, or individuals (best individual orders are through national channels). Set limited batch of 100,000 units (not so insane actually) of both models. Adjust production ratio of QW50HE and FTS50HE according to pre-orders, unless its way more economical to set both in stone sets of 100K each. This way early and potential adoption rate can be gauched. (more on this,)
2b. Open up another channel for "modified". For example, first batch of of FTS50HE may be using Super AMOLED screen. Some buyers propose of a change to IGZO screen, if demand (again money must be laid) exceeds a certain minimum number production is a GO. Or say, people want a low end version, the innards stay the same (its just firmware difference, no?) Or perhaps different, specialized frequencies?
2c. Put initial production as "potentially to be sold", may need to write down inventory if it fails, but at least its of lower quantity), again raise the call for 2nd batch. National channels and carrier channels again participate, with or without 2b (hardware only, please)
2d. distros to individual countries can be managed via individual countries' channels.
2e. In the case of global allied carriers (like Telenor Alliance, Axiata Alliance, Vodafone Alliance, etc) they can use their own methods of distributions, however, the purchase is still from the batch, not based on "i will help to distribute but if there's any leftovers you have to take them back from me" approach. Once the products reach the carriers, it would be in the carrier's liability, so they will have to push the devices out.


From customers:
1. pick a BlackBerry (standard model)
2. buy via order / preorder (with a heavy deposit, but main bulk of purchase is still via national distribution channels into local stores or via carriers)

or...

1a) at the "ready for standard model production" block put in interest for modified models.
1b) if demands exceeds minimum needed, production is a go
1b) if demand does not exceed, buyers will face penalty of 5-10% handling fee, after a certain time expires (after all, its the customers that want a specialized model)




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Reasoning behind:

1. BlackBerry tends to keep using the same chipset (not just the same family, but the VERY SAME CHIPSET) in a particular batch model (such as z10 and q10, and even the q5, although detuned). Prior to BB10, OS legacy devices from OS4 to OS6 also had very identical innards. To ask BlackBerry to change their ways, I doubt its a case of 'teaching an old dog new tricks'. So at the very least this should play into their procurement strategy.

2. Limiting "oversupplying" and placing the onus of selling products into retailers, not into BlackBerries. Volumes are controlled since BlackBerry does not have the clout to automatically attract your average Joe and Jane who are potential customers.

3. Assuming that the new BlackBerry direction under Mr. John Chen is to downplay consumer market and move into the enterprise market, this move would be useful in allowing as little over-inventory as possible, though the question remains on how fast can they manufacture batches of 100k when the demand is met, and how fast from "get go" to getting the devices into hands of clients. Since the new BB10 did not require mandatory BIS, I don't see "loss of projected supposed revenue had the devices arrived earlier" since the profit is wholesale from the production of the batches if sold entirely in a fixed price.

That's about it for the time being. I think there are few things in the model that needs to be fixed, but that's the general outline and the rough mechanism of how it can be done. Not talking about software side yet, though I have an idea how this could work.

[TGR1]

Do you think BBRY has shown the ability to deliver time-critical product and manage such inventory to date?

That's a complicated stream with a lot of managing required. No way it will be affordable either, IMO.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

1. The reason car companies make different models is because people who buy expensive items, want them to be recognized as expensive items.
   
2. People don't like waiting 1 Day for a phone delivery - your "pre order" idea sounds like you would be asking people to wait MUCH longer than that.
   
3. Too much extra cost involved.

The problem with all these write downs is mainly that people are not buying BlackBerry's products. Yes they have over ordered, but in truth they should have sold that many. Changing the production & distribution model is not the answer. The answer is to build and market a product that people will buy.

[badiyee]

Do you think BBRY has shown the ability to deliver time-critical product and manage such inventory to date?

That's a complicated stream with a lot of managing required. No way it will be affordable either, IMO.

its not "that" complicated, I think. I was actually trying to marry off their (BlackBerry) procurement strategy with the kind of batch production that xiaomi is doing with their devices. Granted, there will be kinks to iron out, but i'm not sure if xiaomi's model of batch is actually compliant to J-I-T policy though.