[martinjdub]

I have a bet with my brother in law that BlackBerry will NOT be purchased by another company and WILL continue to make smartphone for the entire 2016 year. He obviously beleives the opposite is true.

We have a $100 down on the table....

From 0 to 100, how confident are you that my $100 is in the bank?

Posted via CB10 and the BlackBerry Passport

[Carjackd]

I have a bet with my brother in law that BlackBerry will NOT be purchased by another company and WILL continue to make smartphone for the entire 2016 year. He obviously beleives the opposite is true.

We have a $100 down on the table....

From 0 to 100, how confident are you that my $100 is in the bank?

Posted via CB10 and the BlackBerry Passport

Well, we already know one phone is in the works

[early2bed]

My guess is that your Net Present Value is $86. That means that, assuming that your brother in law would never welch, I would buy your interest in this bet for $86 or sell you a bet right now for $86 to pay $100. That means if you rang my doorbell right now and gave me $86 in cash, I would give you $100 at the end of the year if you win.

Cool question. I'd like to hear what others here would honestly do in concrete terms. So, it would have to be something less than $100. It would be foolish to give the OP $100 to pay back $100 only if Blackberry isn't sold and does release a smartphone because you would have zero chance of winning anything but there would still be a small chance of losing the bet.

[mad_mdx]

My guess is that your Net Present Value is $86. That means that, assuming that your brother in law would never welch, I would buy your interest in this bet for $86 or sell you a bet right now for $86 to pay $100.

How did you decide the discount rate you wanted to use lol

[early2bed]

How did you decide the discount rate you wanted to use lol

Chance that BlackBerry is acquired in 2016: 7%
Chance that BlackBerry cancels hardware before the next smartphone: 3%
Chance that the OP won't show up to collect on the bet: 1%
Chance that I won't be around for whatever reason to pay the bet: 1%
One year rate of inflation: 2%

Total discount = 14%

How would you calculate it?

[JulesDB]

IMHO BlackBerry will close handset business by the end of the year.

The launch of Priv was not successful, normally a bad start does not improve much his selling performance ...

Posted via CB10

[Elephant_Canyon]

In 2016? Your odds are ok. In 2017? I'd say don't bet on Blackberry to stay in the smartphone hardware market.

[lift]

From 0 to 100, how confident are you that my $100 is in the bank?

Sorry, I have to go with Zero. I do not think BlackBerry will continue in the handset market until the end of 2016. Chen said something like he will close the handset division early if the Priv numbers are not what he wants them to be. In just the next couple of months there are going to be a few new handsets that are going to be cheaper than the Priv and much better spec'd. There already devices that are equally spec'd but much cheaper than the Priv. I see problems in 2016.

[anon(8865116)]

no one knows but I can say with certainty that it's harder to get bought out the more successful they are because there are only so many tech companies that can afford > 5 billion buyouts... and that would really be saying something considering they could have gotten bbry for 9 bucks a share at one point. I don't think their new ventures have justified a valuation higher than that just yet unfortunately... whereas private equity would love to dismantle the company

[CHIP72]

I have a bet with my brother in law that BlackBerry will NOT be purchased by another company and WILL continue to make smartphone for the entire 2016 year. He obviously beleives the opposite is true.

What happens if each of you is right on one question and wrong on the other?

Blackberry is moving in a software direction, and I don't think they'll be bought by another company. However, I could definitely see Blackberry exiting the hardware business if their smartphone sales don't pick up.

[JeepBB]

I reckon you'll win your $100, but probably not for BB-positive reasons.

If BB don't announce/release the Vienna at MWC, I think they'll be a collective gasp of disbelief here on the CB forums because it's been so heavily trailed as "coming soon". So that's one part of your bet you'll win.

As to any other company buying BB in its present state, why would they? Chen has done wonders at BB, and he may actually save BB... but it's not saved yet, and the ship may yet founder. If there are any potential buyers out there, I'm sure they'd wait until the outcome is all-but certain before making an approach, and that outcome won't be clear within 2016. So, you'll win there too!

Congratulations! Spend your winnings on something frivolous.

[mousii]

In 2016? Your odds are ok. In 2017? I'd say don't bet on Blackberry to stay in the smartphone hardware market.

Totally my position too, you win the bet in 2016 but you don't know for 2017.

Posted via CB10

[Prem WatsApp]

Totally my position too, you win the bet in 2016 but you don't know for 2017.

Posted via CB10

Yeah, lol...

If it takes them close to a year to develop a new phone, exiting is not in the cards for 2016... :-)

�   There's a Crack in the Berry right now...   �

[martinjdub]

Thanks all! If I win, i'll share the spoils with you lot

Posted via CB10 and the BlackBerry Passport