1. conite's Avatar
    Actually, replacing BBOS users with BB10 would be a game-changer. If all of those users could be retained that would get a ton of attention from developers.

    That's BlackBerry's biggest problem now, actually. BBOS is a dead OS. Nobody is developing for it anymore, because we all know there will be no further devices and it's essentially EOL. So really, those users aren't doing BlackBerry much good. In some ways they're weighing the company down.

    BB10 is an excellent OS, but between the damage BlackBerry did to their own reputation and the low initial sales numbers, the platform just isn't attractive to developers now.

    If they could pick up 20 million users overnight it would change the equation. But just handing out phones won't do it.



    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64
    As reported today, we now have 37 million BlackBerry users - about15 million bb10 and 22 million bb7 users. Assuming we keep losing bb7 users at the current rate of 6 million per quarter over the next 4 quarters (we are losing a net of 4 million BlackBerry users a quarter despite sales of bb10 devices), we would be at 25 million a year from now - 4 million bb7 and 21 million bb10 (rough). This represents a NET gain of 6 million bb10 devices which allows for some losses from that end too.

    I would hope that general sales will pick up as the Classic and Leap take hold and BES is given a huge push. But best case would still be maybe 29 million users a year from now - 4 million bb7 and 25 million bb10 users (representing 10 million net gain in bb10 devices, up from my status quo argument above of 6 million net gains).

    Now enter the OP's big Leap giveaway plan.

    Since only half of those Leap recipients would remain available to NEW customers, then we would have 39 million BlackBerry users (still including the 4 million bb7 users).

    Is having 39 million users so much better than having 29 million users that you would be prepared to lose all that revenue? Personally I don't think having an extra 10 million devices out there would amount to a hill of beans - certainly not enough to create any kind of groundswell to turn everything around.

    I'm satisfied that at least for the next few years, we will only be a select niche that will live off the devices that round out the BlackBerry Enterprise portfolio.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    03-31-15 03:14 PM
  2. conite's Avatar
    The Leap is a new lower-priced phone that's meant for the volume market. Hopefully they can find a way to market it so that it can be at least a modest hit.

    Get BB10 to 20-30 million users, and demonstrate sustainable growth, and the developers will come back.

    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64
    I just don't think 20-30 million bb10 users would do it. Just opinion of course. Even my best estimate above puts us at 25 million bb10 units a year from now, so that does fit your parameters. I hope you're right.

    But when bb7 had 80 million users, the developers were running away as fast as they could. I think in today's world, you'd need 200 million units as a big catalyst for change.

    I hope I'm wrong.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    03-31-15 03:17 PM
  3. early2bed's Avatar
    Speaking of the Leap, here's the YouTube commercial. I think it may be difficult to market this smartphone - I don't think this guy would be using a Leap since he's already using an iPad and a MacBook. Is he really going to go with a Leap instead of an iPhone to save money?

    03-31-15 03:54 PM
  4. nt300's Avatar
    I think only way to get people (including enterprises/companies) buy or adopt BlackBerry is by getting a lot of apps.

    Sure, you may say, enterprise users don't care about apps. But that's not true. All enterprise users are ALSO consumers (although all consumers are not enterprise users).

    The whole BYOD trend started because employees (also regular consumers) told their employers that they want to use their PERSONAL device (iPhone/Android) because the company issued device (usually a BlackBerry) is slow and has no apps.

    So, I was thinking: how much would it cost BlackBerry to give away 20M BlackBerry devices at cost? At $275/device - let's say BlackBerry is able to sell 1M Leap devices. I am guessing Leap costs around $125 to manufacture? So, (1M leap devices x $275) - ($125 x 1M) = $150M profit; and full year profit = $600M.

    1. what if BlackBerry gave away 20M leaps at cost each? It'd basically mean BlackBerry is foregoing $600M in profit for the whole year. Let's think of it as ad-spend.

    2. At the same time, heavily advertise in developed countries US/Canada/EU - TV and radio channels. Say, another $300M for the year.

    I think if BlackBerry did above two things:

    1. Get additional 20 M BlackBerry 10 OS based devices out in the wild in people's hand. When these 20 M users start using their phones, it'd start showing up in analytics, browser stats and so on. For eg: if you visit a bank site, bank usually tracks what device you used to visit their site. And if a lot of people are using a particular device, bank would optimize their site for THAT device.

    2. It'd increase general awareness. People would know there is a new and IMPROVED BlackBerry in town. It's not the same old slow device anymore.
    -> Some of these people, watching advertisements, are also employees of big companies with influence over what device their company purchases
    -> Some of these people, watching advertisements, are also app-developers or work for companies that produce apps (eg: employees of NetFlix, Instagram etc).

    I think this will lead to:

    1. With 20M devices out there in the wild showing increasing device penetration in stats/analytics PLUS visible advertising seen by developers would make developers curious. Lot of developers would start evaluating cost-benefit of developing for BB. At first, they might simply port-over their Android app and make sure it works on BB 10 (by removing dependency on Google Services) and later might start developing full native apps.

    As apps start coming to BlackBerry, BlackBerry can continue to incorporate this in their ad-campaigns.

    2. With app developers coming to BlackBerry, BlackBerry will start to gain better reviews. And when a company issues a BlackBerry, the employee would not be so resistant to it. And would not insist on iPhone or Android.

    Right now, it seems employees are generally so resistant to BlackBerry devices (issued by their companies) simply because they feel, if they accept a BlackBerry device, they'd lose out on lot of day-to-day things they do on their phones (eg: banking, entertainment , google apps etc). So, they go back to their IT department and request a non-BlackBerry device. If the company refuses, they say, ok, I have my own device can you activate it?

    So, the company thinks.. ok, fine, let me see what I can do. Then the company goes out and buys Mobile Iron, Air Watch, Good Technologies or something (because the company thinks BBRY is going out of business, BES starts with negative points in evaluation score) and activates employee's personal (non BBRY) device on company network.
    Interesting strategy, but I am afraid it will never work. Though if you were to tweak that strategy and initiate some sort of Re-Bate program to somehow attract more Android users to the BB10 platform. That would be a lot more cost effective. And HTML5 seems to be expanding and that is already multi platform supported.

    I have no issues managing social media on my Z30. You don't need Android nor iOS to have that ability any longer. And the only reason why an employee may not want a BBRY device is because they probably think its a BOLD smart phone again. And that is the MAIN Reason they do not want BBRY. Had they been well educated by BBRY about BB10's fantastic line of smart phones, there probably wouldn't be all that much of a stink in the work place.
    03-31-15 09:13 PM
  5. nt300's Avatar
    Speaking of the Leap, here's the YouTube commercial. I think it may be difficult to market this smartphone - I don't think this guy would be using a Leap since he's already using an iPad and a MacBook. Is he really going to go with a Leap instead of an iPhone to save money?

    It's not about price for this example. It's about BB10 vs. iOS. iOS does not stand a chance. Not in intuitiveness, not in security and not in speed. Plus BLEND works very well with all none BBRY components like the MAC, iPad, Android Tablet, PC etc.

    I just don't think 20-30 million bb10 users would do it. Just opinion of course. Even my best estimate above puts us at 25 million bb10 units a year from now, so that does fit your parameters. I hope you're right.

    But when bb7 had 80 million users, the developers were running away as fast as they could. I think in today's world, you'd need 200 million units as a big catalyst for change.

    I hope I'm wrong.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    200M No, not really. If BBRY for example sold 20M Smart Phones in a Quarter, DEV's would be scratching there heads and would start developing native apps as fast as they can. Even 5M per Quarter for example, they would flock over to BB10. IMO. 200M? That is way too excessive of a number.
    03-31-15 09:15 PM
  6. conite's Avatar
    200M No, not really. If BBRY for example sold 20M Smart Phones in a Quarter, DEV's would be scratching there heads and would start developing native apps as fast as they can. Even 5M per Quarter for example, they would flock over to BB10. IMO. 200M? That is way too excessive of a number.
    I hope you're right (and that we'd ever be in the position to test that theory) , but I don't see getting to those kind of numbers anyway.

    When BlackBerry had 80 million users, developers were running to iOS and Android. Yes I know that was a different OS, but the numbers are just so huge elsewhere.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    03-31-15 09:22 PM
  7. chrysaurora's Avatar
    But when bb7 had 80 million users, the developers were running away as fast as they could. I think in today's world, you'd need 200 million units as a big catalyst for change.
    When BlackBerry had 80 million users, developers were running to iOS and Android. Yes I know that was a different OS, but the numbers are just so huge elsewhere.
    Developers didn't look at Android market share before developing for it when it first started, they simply found the OS fun, the hardware mainly thanks to Samsung gave them a great playground with lots of features.

    Majority of the apps initially were impractical but users would show their friends and say look how cool is this, I can scroll with my eyes, the phone pauses video when I look away, controlling the TV with the IR blaster etc etc, these are features and apps that aren't used but clearly demonstrate a forward thinking platform that appears ahead of its time.

    At one point BlackBerry had 80 million users, that was not enough to get devs on board, we now have way less users, definitely won't see any devs coming across anytime soon.
    80 M users of BB7. That OS wasn't app friendly at all. So, there really was no way to make apps for it without investing a lot (more) time and energy (than it'd take to build iPhone and Android). That OS is just not comparable. Apps that did make it to BBOS devices were slow to run (that's why this whole BYOD thing started. Company issued BlackBerry was slow, had poor browser, had slow running apps, repeated memory issues and so on - the old OS did not support high quality apps. No way to build a good experience for it).

    So, this 80 Million argument doesn't apply. If we had 80M BlackBerry 10 users, companies will build apps. In fact, even with just 80M users on such a difficult OS, we still had Google building apps for it. They later stopped it as BBOS stopped growing and started to show negative growth.

    Google and others would flock to build apps for BB10 if they see its growing, getting penetration.

    App developers were attracted to Android because it was easy to build apps for it and it was GROWING. It wasn't a difficult OS like BBOS. Which is what I am trying to say, if we manage to give away 20M BB 10 devices in a year. It'd probably register in various kinds of stats that track OS growth, device penetration etc and developers WILL get interested in developing or porting apps.
    Maybe I missed something... give away 20 million devices at cost to whom?
    To general public. Maybe extend some kind of offer to existing BB7 users. Let existing BB7 users upgrade to BB10 for $100. Let them have two (one for their spouse/child/friend whomever) for $175.

    HP TouchPad went on sale for $99 and every single one was sold. It went out of stock in few days eventhough it was running an unfamiliar unpopular OS (Palm WebOS). Yet at $99, it was sold. Likewise, BlackBerry can push out a lot of devices by putting them on sale or by extending some clever offer to existing BlackBerry 7 users. Turn in your old BlackBerry and get a brand new BB10 device for $99. Get two devices for $175. Something like that.

    By doing this, if they push out additional 20M or so devices in a year, there is no doubt in my mind that BB10 OS would clock phenomenal growth in all kinds of stats/trackers and would attract interest from a LOT of app developers (including big brands like Google - which did infact build apps for even BB 7 OS).

    $300 million in advertising is unrealistic considering they only spent $90 million in the US for BB10 launch in 2013.
    Not unrealistic. It's just management decision. If BlackBerry management decides to spend $300M on advertising, they can.
    03-31-15 09:51 PM
  8. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Even though BBOS had 80 million users, it was known to be a dead end OS that wouldn't grow. On top of that, BlackBerry was notorious for being almost hostile to developers, so they were happy to leave.

    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64
    03-31-15 10:05 PM
  9. Bbnivende's Avatar
    I just wonder if BlackBerry might do better if they offered Porsche type build quality and style at a IPhone 6 price point. Move up market instead of down market.
    04-01-15 12:19 AM
  10. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I just wonder if BlackBerry might do better if they offered Porsche type build quality and style at a IPhone 6 price point. Move up market instead of down market.
    Interesting idea. Why can't they do both? Goal (for first year should be) to simply EXPAND installed base of BlackBerry 10.

    -> Put Z10/Z3/Q5/Leap devices on FireSale kind of prices. Say, $99 for 1 and $175 for 2.
    (Can probably move 15M + devices at this price, this worked for HP TOUCHPAD - they went out of stock in days!)

    -> Put Passport/Classic/Q10/Z30 on $275 to $400ish range
    (Can move a couple million)

    -> Put Porsche design on iPhone 6 kind of prices. Say, $700 for one.
    (Can move maybe another million)


    Once they have installed base of ADDITIONAL 20M + BB10 devices out in the wild (in 12 months timeframe, 20M in 3 years is no big deal), I think you'll see a LOT of interest from app-developers -- both indie and big name developers.

    And once you get app-developer interest, you get BOTH consumer AND enterprise interest!


    I'd like to remark that Microsoft practically "gives" away Windows Phone from a price standpoint and the situation, while better than Blackberry, is not much improved. Microsoft literally gave away Windows Phones in the "Smoked by Windows Phone" Challenge, many of which were high end at the time, and many recipients still did not keep them.
    While it is true Nokia was giving away Windows Phones - problem was - companies weren't issuing WP devices to begin with. Whereas with BlackBerry - it is a device that companies were issuing to their employees and they still do! But now employees are so resistant to receiving a BlackBerry device (because they have to sacrifice on the apps they want) that they go back to their employer and ask for a different device.

    But if BlackBerry got apps, these employees won't resist receiving a company issued BlackBerry.
    Last edited by chrysaurora; 04-01-15 at 01:59 AM.
    04-01-15 01:21 AM
  11. anon(9188202)'s Avatar
    Maybe I missed something... give away 20 million devices at cost to whom?
    Sign me up...
    04-01-15 02:07 AM
  12. Bbnivende's Avatar
    You can read on CrackBerry that BlackBerry admitted in a response to the removal of the BlackBerry App Generator :

    "BlackBerry� has made the decision to end of life this product as part of our shift in strategic focus to serve the needs of enterprise customers."

    There is really no solution for the rest of us except to beg,borrow or steal Android apps or use a mobile site or generic app

    I can only see some sort of Hybrid OS being developed which is Google Play compliant but with a BlackBerry feel and features. This would be good for Enterprise customers too.


    Posted via CB10
    04-01-15 02:13 AM
  13. JosevuN3's Avatar
    BB10 don't need this!!!! That's Blackberry 10 specific and I hope it still remain as is.

    Posted via CB10
    how about toolbelt? it offers the same function
    04-01-15 02:17 AM
  14. twiggyrj's Avatar
    It's not about price for this example. It's about BB10 vs. iOS. iOS does not stand a chance. Not in intuitiveness, not in security and not in speed. Plus BLEND works very well with all none BBRY components like the MAC, iPad, Android Tablet, PC etc.



    200M No, not really. If BBRY for example sold 20M Smart Phones in a Quarter, DEV's would be scratching there heads and would start developing native apps as fast as they can. Even 5M per Quarter for example, they would flock over to BB10. IMO. 200M? That is way too excessive of a number.

    Windows is selling 15m per quarter and is not getting major developer interest. I think you need to be selling at least 30-40 million per quarter to get more companies interested.
    04-01-15 06:03 AM
  15. conite's Avatar
    You can read on CrackBerry that BlackBerry admitted in a response to the removal of the BlackBerry App Generator :

    "BlackBerry� has made the decision to end of life this product as part of our shift in strategic focus to serve the needs of enterprise customers."

    There is really no solution for the rest of us except to beg,borrow or steal Android apps or use a mobile site or generic app

    I can only see some sort of Hybrid OS being developed which is Google Play compliant but with a BlackBerry feel and features. This would be good for Enterprise customers too.


    Posted via CB10
    That said, I'm glad it's gone. 99.9% of those were useless apps cluttering up bbw.

    Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281
    04-01-15 06:11 AM
  16. birdman_38's Avatar
    Maybe extend some kind of offer to existing BB7 users. Let existing BB7 users upgrade to BB10 for $100.
    I always thought BlackBerry would have offered incentives for OS 7 subscribers to move up to BB10. Maybe even cover early upgrade fees for those locked into a term with their carrier.

    Unfortunately, that ship has since sailed.
    JeepBB likes this.
    04-01-15 06:11 AM
  17. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Windows is selling 15m per quarter and is not getting major developer interest. I think you need to be selling at least 30-40 million per quarter to get more companies interested.
    Windows Phone is starting to see some modest developer uptake, though they may be holding back on major new announcements until WP10 launches later this year.

    If BlackBerry started selling 15 million handsets per quarter they'd get some attention.

    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64
    04-01-15 06:12 AM
  18. twiggyrj's Avatar
    Windows Phone is starting to see some modest developer uptake, though they may be holding back on major new announcements until WP10 launches later this year.

    If BlackBerry started selling 15 million handsets per quarter they'd get some attention.

    Posted from CB10 on my classy Passport--TBUCK64

    On Windows Phone we are not seeing an App gap but a quality gap by some big name devs not updating their apps. Instagram last updated their app last year
    04-01-15 06:14 AM
  19. birdman_38's Avatar
    HP TouchPad went on sale for $99 and every single one was sold. It went out of stock in few days even though it was running an unfamiliar unpopular OS
    Yet it didn't spurn any meaningful increase in development.
    04-01-15 06:38 AM
  20. pbfan's Avatar
    Except when your press a home button it's not closed either. It's still running in the background albeit paused.

    Posted via CB10
    This is not completely true from my experience for android phones. It looks like it depends on applications. In addition, the android OS can kill an app if it idles too long. By using a home button, BB10 can provide two mechanisms of "closing" an application: 1. Swiping-up - Minimizing GUI but still running and 2. Home button-behaving as those for Android. This will significantly improves experiences for new users.
    Last edited by pbfan; 04-01-15 at 08:40 AM.
    04-01-15 08:16 AM
  21. ljfong's Avatar
    Yet it didn't spurn any meaningful increase in development.
    In the case of HP TouchPad, the intention of the sale was crystal clear, it's meant to be forever gone once stock is out. For BlackBerry, it's a bit different. It's actually funny that people actually forked over cash buying HP TouchPad during the sale, knowing that it's a device that has been EOL-ed on sale.
    04-01-15 11:17 AM
  22. nt300's Avatar
    This is not completely true from my experience for android phones. It looks like it depends on applications. In addition, the android OS can kill an app if it idles too long. By using a home button, BB10 can provide two mechanisms of "closing" an application: 1. Swiping-up - Minimizing GUI but still running and 2. Home button-behaving as those for Android. This will significantly improves experiences for new users.
    Keep the Home Button far away from BB10.

    Sexy White Z30
    04-01-15 11:31 AM
  23. Plazmic Flame's Avatar
    Your enthusiasm is commendable but the majority of devs have already spoken, they don't want to build for BB10. Whether it be for money, time, resources, potential market penetration... take your pick. I don't see it happening at this point in time. "Get the apps!" has been a battle-cry since day 1 of BB10.
    04-01-15 11:38 AM
  24. birdman_38's Avatar
    Your enthusiasm is commendable but the majority of devs have already spoken, they don't want to build for BB10. Whether it be for money, time, resources, potential market penetration... take your pick. I don't see it happening at this point in time.
    Yeah, it's almost a lost cause. Especially now that BlackBerry has walked away from consumer native app development.
    04-01-15 11:42 AM
  25. klingon's Avatar
    If you want apps, load aptoide you can load it straight to your phone then install it, you have the entire google play store.
    04-01-15 11:45 AM
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