[Upright-Underground]

In the 6 months of having a Classic great device, but after reading CB daily, I can't help but feel I made a bad decision. It has been great to experience it, but I would not do it again.

I would not pay a monthly fee for any OS for any type of device.

 Classic

[Fool Guy]

No matter how much concerned you are but till date no one pays like this.
And see when john Chen talks about BB10 future he always talks about Enterprise and Govt consumers. Common user is not in picture at all.
Common user is nowhere in BB vision that's why they have such a miserable marketing for almost all the BB10 phones.
As a matter of bitter fact they never tried to propagate BB10 with even 10% seriousness.
That's why they are in this situation.

[RoboticGolem]

Isnt this what they were doing with the legacy devices? I know when they started the transition into bb10, everyone was worried about the loss of income from those. I remember having to pay an extra 30$ on my cell bill just because I had a legacy blackberry.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Isnt this what they were doing with the legacy devices? I know when they started the transition into bb10, everyone was worried about the loss of income from those. I remember having to pay an extra 30$ on my cell bill just because I had a legacy blackberry.

That was to cover the BIS licensing fees that Carriers for the most part where including as a cost of doing business as at that time BlackBerry was THE SMARTPHONE and was the driving force in getting consumers to buy more expensive data plans (much like today with Apple they are willing to lose money on hardware to drive sells). But as Apple and Android became dominate and competition heated up among Carriers. They had to get more competitive with basic data plans, so they simple made BlackBerry users that wanted a new plan to pay for the higher cost plans that included BIS licensing. But those collected fees didn't go towards improving or updating BBOS.

[cbvinh]

Don't think they could retain their security if it went open source.

Open source doesn't imply lack of security. Someone could give you the source code to a security algorithm and all it would tell you is that it would take a trillion years to brute force attack it.

[RyanGermann]

There are a number of interesting funding models that could sustain BB10. A subscription is just one of them. It depends on how much it would cost of course, but $1 per month for BB10 from 1 million BB10 fans is $12 million a year. Sounds like plenty of money for developers to continue to develop BB10 and add new features and fix bugs.

Of course, there are plenty who will say that's not very much, but even if each paid developer has 100% overhead, you could hire about 36 full time developers to work on BB10 for $12 million bucks a year... and that's being quite generous with salaries and perks and overhead.

The fact of the matter is that the reasons why BB is abandoning BB10 are less to do with actual costs than it is to do with "effort". They just can't be bothered. There are those who try time and time again to convince us all (for what end, I have no idea) that BlackBerry has ACTUALLY done some kind of "cost accounting" on alternative funding approaches and ruled them out purely on the economics of it. Hogwash. "Not being bothered to try to figure it out" is more likely, which is why BlackBerry's apathy toward it's most loyal customers is contemptible.

[cbvinh]

There are a number of interesting funding models that could sustain BB10. A subscription is just one of them. It depends on how much it would cost of course, but $1 per month for BB10 from 1 million BB10 fans is $12 million a year. Sounds like plenty of money for developers to continue to develop BB10 and add new features and fix bugs.

Of course, there are plenty who will say that's not very much, but even if each paid developer has 100% overhead, you could hire about 36 full time developers to work on BB10 for $12 million bucks a year... and that's being quite generous with salaries and perks and overhead.

The fact of the matter is that the reasons why BB is abandoning BB10 are less to do with actual costs than it is to do with "effort". They just can't be bothered. There are those who try time and time again to convince us all (for what end, I have no idea) that BlackBerry has ACTUALLY done some kind of "cost accounting" on alternative funding approaches and ruled them out purely on the economics of it. Hogwash. "Not being bothered to try to figure it out" is more likely, which is why BlackBerry's apathy toward it's most loyal customers is contemptible.

Last quarter, BlackBerry spent $139 million on R&D. If it hypothetically costs $12 million to maintain BB10, then where did the other $127 million go?

[RyanGermann]

Last quarter, BlackBerry spent $139 million on R&D. If it hypothetically costs $12 million to maintain BB10, then where did the other $127 million go?

Settlements for all the layoffs. Plus the Priv. Plus BES12, AdHoc, all the other stuff they do. Is there a point to this misdirection? There certainly weren't any significant investments in BB10 last quarter, so what you CAN say is that they're willing to spend $127 million on other stuff and not lift a finger to maintain BB10.

You can dispute that $12 million is not enough to pay 36 developers for a year to work on BB10, but that's just obviously incorrect, so what IS your point?

[conite]

Settlements for all the layoffs. Plus the Priv. Plus BES12, AdHoc, all the other stuff they do. Is there a point to this misdirection?

I think you are an order of magnitude off in your estimate for developing and maintaining a modern OS. I think it's in the 9 figures for sure.

The other issue is the OHA again. Although I don't think the existing Runtime would be stripped away, they certainly won't allow its continued development. Being stuck at 4.3 would kill off BB10 by itself.

PassportSQW100-4/10.3.2.2789

[RyanGermann]

I think you are an order of magnitude off in your estimate for developing and maintaining a modern OS. I think it's in the 9 figures for sure.

We're not talking about redeveloping BB10 from scratch. Maintenance, new features, etc. How many person hours do you think it would take to add a single new feature to, say, the BB10 Camera app?

36 full time developers is over 74,000 person hours.

Let's assume at least 1/6th of that for vacation etc. 2 months per person of "not working".

So we're at 62,400.

Maybe I just work with really really really talented developers (I know I do) but I see 62,400 person hours as a lot of hours to invest in BlackBerry 10, and a lot of good could come from that. I think if there were 1 million BB10 fans willing to pay $1 per month for a subscription, there would be a great return on that investment of $12 per year. Two specialty coffees are $12. You barely get out of a fast food restaurant with a "combo" for less than $12.

Again, this is less about what real or imaginary costs are involved: it's BlackBerry's apathy and incompetence that is at issue here. BlackBerry has no interest in "alternative funding models" no matter how much or how little the costs might be.

[cbvinh]

Settlements for all the layoffs. Plus the Priv. Plus BES12, AdHoc, all the other stuff they do. Is there a point to this misdirection? There certainly weren't any significant investments in BB10 last quarter, so what you CAN say is that they're willing to spend $127 million on other stuff and not lift a finger to maintain BB10.

You can dispute that $12 million is not enough to pay 36 developers for a year to work on BB10, but that's just obviously incorrect, so what IS your point?

BlackBerry's operating costs are a lot more than $139 million. $139 million was listed specifically for Research and Development. If you ran a business, do you include layoff settlements in R&D? PRIV, BES12, yes... maybe AdHoc purchase (but it would still be weird). If no monies were spent on BB10 in $139 million, what do you think it was for? That's a lot of people (416 by your calculation method).

BlackBerry has what projects to divide $139 million? Passport SE, PRIV, BES12, IoT, QNX, what else? How much would each of those cost?

[RyanGermann]

BlackBerry has what projects to divide $139 million? Passport SE, PRIV, BES12, IoT, QNX, what else? How much would each of those cost?

They can be researching anti gravity for all I know and care.

We're in a world where a single human being builds and maintains Whatsapp for BB10. That is just an example what investing in developers on the OS itself could accomplish, nevermind the backend services that Whatsapp develops that service all apps on all OSes... just the work that goes into adding capabilities to the client apps. There are plenty of APIs in BB10 OS that don't rely on backend services that BB10 OS developers could work on to give end users value. Improvements to Remember, Calendar, Hub, Contacts, bug fixes in the Browser, better handling of bookmarks, connecting Password Keeper to the Browser... there are lots of ideas that would be within the realm of possibility for a team of BB10 OS developers funded by end users.

It's possible that BlackBerry has segregated the "apps" that make up the Productivity Suite from the OS development team, so we may continue to see updates to BB10 in the form of improvements to Apps... but they've been pretty quiet on that so forgive me for allowing the cynicism they've cultivated to take over. All that's clear is that "BB10 is in maintenance mode" and if that doesn't mean that all the app-like features of BB10 are also in bare maintenance mode, they should clear the air.

[cbvinh]

We're not talking about redeveloping BB10 from scratch. Maintenance, new features, etc. How many person hours do you think it would take to add a single new feature to, say, the BB10 Camera app?

36 full time developers is over 74,000 person hours.

Let's assume at least 1/6th of that for vacation etc. 2 months per person of "not working".

So we're at 62,400.

Maybe I just work with really really really talented developers (I know I do) but I see 62,400 person hours as a lot of hours to invest in BlackBerry 10, and a lot of good could come from that. I think if there were 1 million BB10 fans willing to pay $1 per month for a subscription, there would be a great return on that investment of $12 per year. Two specialty coffees are $12. You barely get out of a fast food restaurant with a "combo" for less than $12.

Again, this is less about what real or imaginary costs are involved: it's BlackBerry's apathy and incompetence that is at issue here. BlackBerry has no interest in "alternative funding models" no matter how much or how little the costs might be.

How much would it cost to make a BB10 clone from scratch? It's not like things will have to be figured out from nothing. There are BB10 devices to look at, play with, to figure out what features need to be made. There's no need to make hardware, just make installable on Nexus devices, like what Jolla and Mozilla did. Maybe this could be crowd funded. Figure out the cost in advance, the time frame, and deliver.

[cbvinh]

They can be researching anti gravity for all I know and care.

We're in a world where a single human being builds and maintains Whatsapp for BB10.

Multiply that by 36 times and imagine what could be accomplished on BB10.

Sorry to say, but Whatsapp isn't that sophisticated. Its value is in the number of users it has, not the greatness of its code. Further, that one developer is leveraging off of base code developed on the other platforms.

[conite]

We're not talking about redeveloping BB10 from scratch. Maintenance, new features, etc. How many person hours do you think it would take to add a single new feature to, say, the BB10 Camera app?

36 full time developers is over 74,000 person hours.

Perhaps if you're simply concerned with small incremental changes this may be sufficient. To keep it going head to head with the other big boys on the block is another story (or at least sufficiently capable to have anyone interested at all).

Assuming you need, on average, one new device per year to keep things going, the drivers alone for that would be 8 figures annually from the chipset manufacturer.

I again go back to the Android Runtime. Without significant updates (forbidden by the existence of the Priv), the app availability would completely disappear within a year or two - unless you spend the hundreds of millions that Microsoft does to woo native developers (which your model could not afford).

PassportSQW100-4/10.3.2.2789

[anon(9607753)]

Google play on BB10 could work as a subscription. The whole OS...well seeing as no one does that, I highly doubt it.

Posted via CB10

[RyanGermann]

Perhaps if you're simply concerned with small incremental changes this may be sufficient. To keep it going head to head with the other big boys on the block is another story (or at least sufficiently capable to have anyone interested at all).

BB10 fans probably aren't interested in competing head-to-head with iOS or Android. We know that's a losing battle (and yet, something current BBRY management is absolutely committed to, with actually switching to Android as the ultimate expression of "heinous envy" (that's wanting BB10 to have all of the Android malware that can possibly be downloaded from the Google Play store).

Assuming you need, on average, one new device per year to keep things going, the drivers alone for that would be 8 figures annually from the chipset manufacturer.

I make no assumptions about devices, because it's pretty clear that Chen has murdered BB10 devices. There will be no new BB10 devices, but I'd pay to keep getting new features on the existing and excellent BB10 devices like the Z30, Classic and Passport. I think a lot of people would.

I again go back to the Android Runtime. Without significant updates (forbidden by the existence of the Priv), the app availability would completely disappear within a year or two - unless you spend the hundreds of millions that Microsoft does to woo native developers (which your model could not afford).

Absolutely, there are lots of things that this would not include: let's list them for clarity:

1) No new device hardware platforms: there is no will by BlackBerry management to pursue alternative funding approaches to get BB10 onto the Slider hardware, and if they won't fund development on an EXISTING BB device, they certainly aren't going to develop new device platforms upon which BB10 can run. Maybe Passport derivatives, but that's doubtful.

2) No new APIs: developing APIs in the OS might not make much sense if there isn't going to be new hardware and new third-party development. This is sad because if I'd be willing to pay $1 per month for new features here and there, I'd pay a lot more as a one time charge for certain things: for example, I'd like to see BlackBerry 10 introduce some kind of "mobile payments" APIs directly into the OS so that mobile payment apps could be surfaced better. That is, it's absolutely PAINFUL to get to the point with most payment apps that you can actually MAKE A PAYMENT, and with Samsung Pay and Apple Pay and Google Pay all supporting biometric / fingerprint to launch, well, that's something that's baked into the OS: in the absence of a biometric sensor, perhaps something could be done on the lock screen like "press and hold the payment icon" and up would pop a password box (you'd enter your device password) and then you pick one of the payment options for tap to pay. No, not a fingerprint, but something on the homescreen + a pin + the app being aware that it has been launched by the "pay from lock screen" so it immediately goes into "ready to pay" mode, and you have what is essentially "Apple Pay" without a thumbprint scanner. Surfacing payment apps directly on the lock screen rather than having to dig through your app library to find them (or give your entire Home screen over to "payment apps") would be an interesting addition to BB10 that I think is a convenience worth paying for. Full disclosure: I'm a huge proponent of mobile payments, and loathe the idea of centralizing control in the OS vendor like Apple or Google or even Samsung. LOATHE. BB as a device maker that isn't going to become a major player in payments just lets users choose whatever payment method they like. From stand-alone store apps like the Timmy Me app, all the way up to mobile wallets like UGO Wallet or Suretap (the UX of both are horrible at this stage, but BB10 would be a great platform for them to thrive on, as they are sidelined on Android and iOS).

3) Nothing super spectacular... I don't expect there to be a lot of innovation, but you know what? Give these developers some freedom and I bet they'll come up with excellent ideas on their own and actually ENJOY adding great and interesting new features to the OS. While I'd expect the developers to be competitively compensated, they don't want to be horribly bored all day... and with the right management and work-ethic, I think you'd be surprised what a small team of engaged developers can accomplish. It happens all the time, every day, in large and small organizations, and, as we BlackBerry 10 fans have seen first hand, even in single-developer shops: great ideas come out of small, motivated, empowered teams.

[conite]

@RyanGermann,

OK. I read you 100% now.

Sort of a "Maintenance Mode Plus" business model for existing devices.

I only wonder how many people would want to sign up for this over the free maintenance mode (without the "plus") that we have now.

PassportSQW100-4/10.3.2.2789

[bobshine]

Horrible idea! BES is the way to go for subscription based revenues. Adding BlackBerry 10 would be considered gauging

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I "imagine" BB10 died the day someone in a meeting gave Chen the cost estimate for moving over to a 64 BIT OS, or when they told him how much it would cost to implement a newer Android Runtime into BB10.

Some nobody in the room probable asked wouldn't it would be cheaper to just secure the Android OS..... and light bulbs went off.

[cbvinh]

@RyanGermann,

OK. I read you 100% now.

Sort of a "Maintenance Mode Plus" business model for existing devices.

I only wonder how many people would want to sign up for this over the free maintenance mode (without the "plus") that we have now.

Yeah, I'd be skeptical that people would pay for this over what is already offered for free. If someone is already happy with the way things are and don't care for apps, new devices, etc., then what's the incentive to pay for this? On the developer end, would developers feel safe with their jobs when their job security is based on month-to-month funding? BlackBerry would have to guarantee to pick up the slack for X months should user contributions decline, to provide a smooth transition to another position or to shut things down.

[TGR1]

If they had 1 million users paying $10 a month that's $10,000,000

Posted via the CrackBerry App

$10 US a month is a lot of money for many users in countries where BBRY still has marketshare. If BBRY were to make it a North America-only or some such thing, well - the scheme will die faster than a one-hit wonder's career.

[TGR1]

We're not talking about redeveloping BB10 from scratch. Maintenance, new features, etc. How many person hours do you think it would take to add a single new feature to, say, the BB10 Camera app?

36 full time developers is over 74,000 person hours.

Let's assume at least 1/6th of that for vacation etc. 2 months per person of "not working".

So we're at 62,400.

Maybe I just work with really really really talented developers (I know I do) but I see 62,400 person hours as a lot of hours to invest in BlackBerry 10, and a lot of good could come from that. I think if there were 1 million BB10 fans willing to pay $1 per month for a subscription, there would be a great return on that investment of $12 per year. Two specialty coffees are $12. You barely get out of a fast food restaurant with a "combo" for less than $12.

Again, this is less about what real or imaginary costs are involved: it's BlackBerry's apathy and incompetence that is at issue here. BlackBerry has no interest in "alternative funding models" no matter how much or how little the costs might be.

There is that word "if" again. So influential despite its size.

Of course it's all about "real or imaginary" costs - it costs us nothing to argue and grouse on an internet forum. We aren't running a company whose survival depends on knowing which is which. I personally think you are na�ve in your resource estimates (note you are assigning 100% of revenue without any thought of overhead and admin costs) and customer aversion to paying extra (many won't even pay 0.99c for an app). That little '"if" is a huge assumption for BBRY to make and a huge risk to gamble the company on. I don't really think BBRY is apathetic but it can be very difficult to change the way a big entrenched company thinks.

Anyhow, a subscription model would be a bad move. Most likely very poor levels of buy-in, resentment from every group convinced that they are getting the shaft somehow compared to someone else, and another PR hit. The very small revenue likely to be realized won't be worth it.

[dracolnyte]

no one is going to pay a monthly fee to get an OS that inconveniences themselves from the lack of apps

[Tre Lawrence]

no one is going to pay a monthly fee to get an OS that inconveniences themselves from the lack of apps

There would be a few.